Will John Fetterman's Refusal to Debate Dr. Oz Harm His Chances in Penn?

Democratic U.S. Senate candidate John Fetterman is under pressure for declining to debate his Republican opponent, Dr. Mehmet Oz, in the hotly contested Pennsylvania race.

Fetterman, who is lieutenant governor of Pennsylvania, is continuing to recover from a stroke and his campaign told The Washington Post they were "working to figure out what a fair debate would look like with the lingering impacts of the auditory processing in mind."

Retiring Republican Senator Pat Toomey has suggested Fetterman is trying to "avoid" debates, while Oz has said the Democrat "is either healthy and he's dodging the debate because he does not want to answer for his radical left positions, or he's too sick to participate in the debate."

Political scientists who spoke to Newsweek said that there were political risks for both candidates from making a debate—or the lack of it—a major issue.

An Issue That Sticks

Oz could successfully turn Fetterman's reluctance to debate into an issue of concern for voters, according to Thomas Gift, founding director of University College London's Center on U.S. Politics whose home state is Pennsylvania.

"Although Fetterman enjoys a commanding lead in the U.S. Senate race, his refusal to debate—if framed properly by Oz—could be an issue that 'sticks' for Pennsylvanians," Gift told Newsweek.

"It's no secret to anyone who followed the Democratic primary race in Pennsylvania that Fetterman isn't the strongest debater," he said. "If voters perceive he's trying to hide behind his health condition to avoid a one-on-one with Oz, that could be used effectively against him."

Health Concerns

Fetterman's decision not to debate Oz also runs the risk of raising voters' concerns about his health and his potential performance as a senator.

"For Fetterman to say that he is unable to debate because he is still recovering from his stroke is not a strong excuse, politically. It raises obvious questions about whether he can perform the work of a senator—which includes participating in debate," Paul Quirk, a political scientist at the University of British Columbia in Canada, told Newsweek.

"He can say that he is expected to recover fully, but many will dismiss that claim as optimistic speculation," Quirk said. "Many will also wonder if, as he claims, his only deficits are in auditory processing. And the controversy about debating will remind people that he may be vulnerable to another stroke or other health problems."

Quirk added that if Fetterman's "only problem is occasionally hearing a few words incorrectly, he would be better off agreeing to debate."

"The way debates are conducted, all he has to do is deliver canned remarks somehow related to each topic of discussion," he said.

"Participants in political debate respond as if they haven't heard a question or an opponent's statement, all the time, just because they prefer to talk about something else. Very few people notice," Quirk added.

A Bad Debate Night

However, Fetterman's decision to avoid a debate for now could prove a wise course of action, according to David A. Bateman, an associate professor of government at Cornell University.

"It is often to the advantage of the front runner to keep debates to a minimum. After all, things are going well enough for them and a debate might provide their opponent an opportunity to make inroads," Bateman told Newsweek.

"Given that Fetterman seems to be experiencing a common after-effect of strokes that makes it temporarily difficult for him to participate in such a setting, the logic of bowing out makes even more sense," he said.

"He's ahead in the polls so a debate is already a risk. And worse, he expects he won't be able to perform at his top level, increasing the probability of a bad night," Bateman added.

Risks for Oz

Oz may be taking aim at Fetterman for his unwillingness to debate and highlighting his opponent's health, but this also carries political risks.

"The problem for Oz is that he has to walk a fine line. His campaign has already been accused of making insensitive remarks regarding Fetterman's stroke, and he can't afford another attack in the same vein," Gift told Newsweek.

"If Oz goes too hard after Fetterman, or if voters perceive he's trying to bully his opponent recovering from a serious health ailment, he risks his criticism backfiring," Gift said.

Bateman said that "a lot of people understand that strokes can have a bit of a recovery time but may not be debilitating, largely because a lot of people have had strokes or have loved ones who have."

"I think some people realize that the Senate is not, in fact, a place where people debate to a crowded room, in which you need to be able to hear and follow all the conversations," he said.

"And as long as Fetterman is saying he will debate Oz in the future, and as long as he can turn attention back to Oz's seeming mockery of stroke survivors, then he should be OK," Bateman said.

Quirk told Newsweek that with his current poll lead and "the serious problems of Oz's campaign, Fetterman's refusal to debate is not likely a game-changer. It avoids the possibility of some catastrophically bad debate moment—always the main fear for the candidate who is leading."

Newsweek has asked the Oz and Fetterman campaigns for comment.

Update 9/7/22 10:29 a.m. ET: This article was updated to note that Newsweek has asked both campaigns for comment.