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For the first time in a decade, Venezuelans see a glimmer of hope for escape from the inertia of an intransigent dictatorship. María Corina Machado, Venezuela's most ardent warrior for democracy, won the opposition primaries last October by a landslide. After the Venezuelan dictator Nicolás Maduro barred her from running in the upcoming July 28 presidential elections, he has used "bizarre inventions" and excuses to prohibit Machado from travelling. Blocked from boarding a plane, Machado has been traversing the Venezuelan countryside by car, campaigning for her replacement, the former diplomat Edmundo González Urrutia, who continues to lead in the polls. When faced with new obstacles this past weekend- military checkpoints placed intentionally along Machado's route, to "extort and threaten"—she abandoned her car to walk, with only a backpack on her back, until a group of motorcyclists picked her up and transported her to her destination.
Though Maduro has maneuvered in manifold ways to ensure the upcoming presidential election will be unfair, the U.S. resumed talks with Caracas on July 3, most likely with the goal of stemming the tide of Venezuelan immigration to the U.S. It's also likely the Biden administration hopes a reopening of the Venezuelan oil industry would close a trade vacuum that Russia and Iran have sought to fill illegally. Yet the Venezuelan opposition was not notified or included in the talks, and it seems a strange time to negotiate with a dictator who is wanted by the U.S. for drug-trade conspiracy and by the International Criminal Court (ICC) for humanitarian crimes.
Maduro is quietly defying his promises to United States even as he seeks the freedom to use the U.S. financial system and reopen Venezuela's oil industry. As the democratic Venezuelan opposition has grown stronger and more vocal, the regime has escalated attacks against free and fair elections, a condition for lifting of sanctions—which were reinstated in October and revoked in April due to non-compliance on Maduro's part. Misleading ballots, inaccessibility of voting stations, and the barring of 4.5 million eligible Venezuelan living abroad from voting are just a few examples of Maduro's tactics ahead of the July 28 presidential election.
While any talk of a democratic resurgence in Venezuela is beneficial, a U.S.-Maduro dialogue leading to sanctions relief amid such a high-stakes election period does the opposite of improving conditions for millions of suffering Venezuelans. Appeasing Maduro goes against American values while undermining Venezuela's first real chance for a democratic transition, after a decade of human rights abuses, economic desecration, and perverse mishandling of Venezuela's oil infrastructure.
On the one hand, resuming dialogue about free elections is not entirely bad for Venezuelan democracy or U.S. interests. The Barbados agreement between Maduro and the Venezuelan opposition and the secret Qatar negotiations between Venezuela and the U.S. last year led to a slight release of Maduro's grip on the electoral process. While Maduro subsequently barred the leading candidate María Corina Machado from running for president, in her place retired diplomat Edmundo González Urrutia was chosen and allowed to remain on the ballot. Furthermore, paving the way for future legal oil export, with higher environmental regulations, to replace the illegal sanctions maneuvering by bad actors like Russia and Iran, could be a step forward toward Venezuela's democratic future.
Nevertheless, the risks of oil sanctions relief far outweigh any benefits, especially a few weeks before such a high stakes election. According to Hector Briceño, a Venezuelan postdoctoral researcher in political science at Germany's University of Rostock, Maduro badly needs cash.
"Profits from the petroleum industry don't reach the people. Maduro uses them to consolidate his power, dividing them up between military officers and other powerful allies, in the interests of staying in power," he told Newsweek.
A study conducted by the Organización Global de Comunicación y Democracia found multiple ways that Maduro had already rigged the July 28 election. According to Briceño, who was one of the authors of the study, 85 percent of the voting centers were found to be subjected to electoral risk, which were defined in the study as the aggregate of threats to the "integrity, transparency, and legitimacy" of the electoral process.
While Maduro seeks to improve relations with the U.S., his government also often acts directly against U.S. interests. By serving as a hub for international crime, in partnership with the terrorist organization Hezbollah, Caracas is directly threatening security for the entire hemisphere. The Maduro regime's aggressive campaign against press freedom in Venezuela, extra-judicial killings, and arbitrary imprisonment poses a significant danger to the entire continent.
If the purpose of renewed U.S.-Venezuela talks is an effort on the part of the Biden administration to slow immigration to the U.S., emboldening the Maduro regime to repeat his 2018 election-stealing playbook will have the opposite effect. As poverty and insecurity have grown under Maduro, millions find themselves with no choice but to leave the country in search of a more stable future.
A recent nationwide poll conducted by the research firm Delphos found that millions of Venezuelans are considering migrating if there is no change of leadership. The study showed that of the about 25 percent of the population considering emigrating, 47 percent said they would stay if González wins.
When asked what the international community should do to support Venezuelans, Hector Briceño said, "Support the opposition in any way possible."
Instead of lifting sanctions, Washington should prepare coordinated new sanctions against Maduro as he tries to steal the election. Venezuelans have proved they are ready for the messy change that comes with a democratic transition. Again and again, polls show an overwhelming support for the democratic opposition. The U.S. and other Western democracies should do everything possible to promote a peaceful transition of power that honors the will of the Venezuelan people.
Kristina Foltz is a Rotary Scholar. She writes on populism, disinformation, and democratic backsliding in Latin America. Follow her @kristinafoltz1.
The views expressed in this article are the writer's own.
