Year After Dobbs, Democrats and Republicans Lay 2024 Abortion Battle Plans

One year on from the Supreme Court ruling that opened the door for nationwide restrictions on abortion, Democrats and Republicans are outlining their rival plans to use the divisive issue to their advantage in the lead up to next year's elections.

While Democrats largely condemned the Dobbs vs. Jackson Women's Health Organization decision that overturned Roe v. Wade as law of the land, returning the issue of abortion to the state level, the fallout of the ruling has been widely pegged as a factor in the party's subsequent electoral success. Now, they seek to expand on this support moving forward.

But Republicans also see a chance to win on abortion, and they want to shift the narrative being pushed across the aisle to suit their own ambitions at the ballot box as the two sides deride the other's views as radical.

Senator Steve Daines of Montana, who as National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) chair oversees his party's electoral strategy for taking control of the Senate, contrasted the GOP stance against what he referred to as the "extreme" Democratic position, which he argued does not prevent late-term abortions.

"Seventy percent of the American people believe there should be limits placed on late-term abortions with exceptions of rape, incest, and life of the mother," Daines told Newsweek. "So, I think when it's framed that way, what the truth is versus what the ads say and the media might say, the majority of Americans will support that position that we're taking."

Daines pointed to polling data that has found 71 percent of Americans support legal limits on abortion—per a 2022 survey conducted by Marist and commissioned by the Knights of Columbus—as evidence of his point. However, he and his party face messaging challenges around the issue because views differ by candidate over what constitutes a "late-term" abortion and where exemptions should be put in place.

For example, Ohio Secretary of State Frank Larose, who told NBC he plans to run in the Ohio GOP Senate primary, voted during his time in the State Senate for a 2018 abortion restriction bill that did not provide exemptions for rape or incest. Wisconsin Congressman Tom Tiffany, who's considering a 2024 Senate bid, co-sponsored legislation that would ban abortions after the detection of a fetal heartbeat, which can develop around six weeks. Critics of such measures have argued that many women do not know they are pregnant within that timeframe.

With 2024 being a presidential year, the issue and the messaging around it will likely become even more nationalized than in 2022, meaning differing stances on timeline-based restrictions could catch greater heat. Democrats are signaling their belief that Republicans could pursue national abortion restrictions, emphasizing that the issue cannot be handled in broad terms. The party cites a June 2023 poll commissioned by the Democrats' campaign arm and conducted by GQR Research that found 65 percent of swing state voters believe abortion "should be legal in all or most circumstances" as backing their stance.

Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) Chair Gary Peters, the senator for Michigan, said abortion will motivate voters in 2024 as it did in 2022. He argued that the Republican position is extreme and pointed to differing views on exceptions as an example of that.

"Our Senate races are going to be about the two candidates running, and they're going to have very different positions when it comes to reproductive freedom," he told Newsweek. "Democrats support it, and the Republicans, for the most part in all of these races, believe there should be no exceptions—not even if a woman is a victim of rape or incest, and that's completely out of step with where a large majority of the American people are."

"When you campaign on taking away people's fundamental rights, or the possibility you will do that if you're elected, people respond in time, turn out to vote, and make sure that their voices are heard," Peters added.

In Wisconsin, a state critical to the presidential race and control of the Senate, all abortions, except for those endangering the life of the mother, are illegal due to a law from 1849. Democrats are working to galvanize support around the issue, hoping to build off the momentum from the April race for a seat on the Wisconsin Supreme Court, where liberal Judge Janet Protasiewicz made it clear she favored overturning the 1849 law and rode the issue to victory.

Arik Wolk, rapid response director for Wisconsin Democrats, said his party is looking to build off that momentum heading into 2024. During the Wisconsin Supreme Court race, he said voters in both rural and suburban areas noted the issue during door-knocking conversations. He argued that that concern will carry into 2024, and the party plans to keep speaking with voters on the ground as Democrats look to flip the state's first and third congressional district as well as maintain control of its senate seat.

Democratic Senator Tammy Baldwin, who will be defending that seat, agreed with Wolk's assessment of the issue's significance and offered insight on how her constituents view of the issue in wake of the one-year anniversary of the Dobbs decision.

"We are seeing the dire consequences for women and families, people who have had to be near death, sepsis, fevers, etcetera, before they can get services, bleeding out, so it is on people's minds," Baldwin told Newsweek. "That was evident in our spring election for the impending Supreme Court vacancy where Wisconsin voters basically said, 'We want our rights and freedoms back.'"

Despite what happened in Wisconsin and the results of the 2022 election, North Carolina's Republican Senator Thom Tillis asserted that it's an issue that can work in the GOP's favor. Like Daines, he portrayed Democrats as radical when it comes to permitting late-term abortions, a sentiment he believes can win his party the support of swing voters.

"I think it's a winning issue for pro-life people who are reasonable and explain what we're trying to do," Tillis told Newsweek. "For those of us who are doing our best to save one baby's life at a time, I think it's a winning issue, and we shouldn't run from it."

While North Carolina voted for former President Donald Trump in 2020, it remains a state that Democrats believe they can flip and one in which abortion has become a prominent issue. The North Carolina General Assembly voted in May to override the Democratic governor's veto and passed a bill banning abortion at 12 weeks with exceptions for rape and incest through 20 weeks of pregnancy as well as exceptions for "life-limiting" fetal anomalies through the first 24 weeks.

During the 2022 Senate race, Republican candidate Ted Budd labeled the Women's Health Protection Act as "radical." The bill, which was supported by his Democratic challenger Cheri Beasley, would legalize abortions until the fetus reaches viability around 24 weeks, only permitting termination after that period in cases where "pregnancy would pose a risk to the pregnant patient's life or health." Beasley lost the election.

Swing state Democratic-aligned incumbents up for reelection in 2024 Senators Sherrod Brown of Ohio, Jacky Rosen of Nevada, Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona, and Jon Tester of Montana all co-sponsored the Women's Health Protection Act, which was sponsored in the Senate this year by Baldwin. Democratic Senators Bob Casey Jr. of Pennsylvania and Joe Manchin of West Virginia, whose terms also expire in 2024, did not co-sponsor the measure.

New York Republican Party Chairman Ed Cox, whose state's guidelines mirror the Women's Health Protection Act, will play a critical part in helping Republicans retain control of the House of Representatives as Democrats set their sights on flipping the third, fourth, 17^th, 19^th, and 22^nd districts.

While the issue of abortion proved formative in New York Democratic Congressman Pat Ryan's first congressional race victory during a 2021 special election where he campaigned heavily on the topic, Republicans saw unexpected support in the gubernatorial race in which the party nominated anti-abortion Republican Lee Zeldin who focused on issues beyond Dobbs.

"Despite the absence of a Red Wave nationally, Lee Zeldin ran an excellent gubernatorial campaign, garnering an unexpected 47 percent of the vote, by focusing on the issues of crime and the economy with the theme of saving New York," Cox told Newsweek. "He made it clear that he could not change the abortion laws of New York State."

Whether this same strategy will be tested in New York could be affected by an upcoming legal case that may see the state redistricted ahead of 2024. Such a move would vastly change the political make-up of the congressional map, potentially making swing districts more liberal and collectively more concerned over abortion access.

Ultimately, Laura Lindberg, a professor specializing in reproductive health and rights with Rutgers University's School of Public Health, said that because the United States has not reached a national consensus on abortion limits, the issue will be viewed differently across the country. In a presidential year, the issue will take on a national tone and how well candidates understand the views of their constituents and communicate their positions will play a key role.

Lindberg believes Republicans will face a challenge in doing this, given the personalized nature of reproductive care and the individual circumstances that vary greatly between each person, a task further complicated by the fact that many politicians do not have medical experience.

"When you talk to physicians and when they talk about providing medical care, what they say is that these cases become so complex and individualized that no single law could possibly address what's in them," Lindberg told Newsweek. "You can't write exceptions that account for everything that's going to happen, especially when the people writing these exceptions and these laws aren't healthcare providers, they're politicians."