Did Prigozhin Fake His Own Death? Analyzing the Conspiracy Theories

Conspiracy theories are swirling around the possible death of notorious Wagner mercenary leader Yevgeny Prigozhin after a plane crashed over Russian territory on Wednesday.

Russia's civil aviation authority said that a private jet listing former Kremlin ally Prigozhin as a passenger had crashed north of Moscow, killing all 10 people on board the aircraft. The passengers included Dmitry Utkin, a former Russian officer with the call sign, "Wagner," who is thought to have co-founded the mercenary outfit.

The crash happened two months to the day after Prigozhin led a short-lived armed rebellion against the Kremlin, with his forces seizing the southern city of Rostov-on-Don before marching towards the Russian capital. The mutiny was called off in a deal said to have been brokered by Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko.

The passenger list released by Russian authorities showed seven passengers and three crew members onboard the aircraft at the time. An investigation has been launched into the incident, Russia's Federal Agency for Air Transport said.

The plane crashed near the village of Kuzhenkino, in the Tver region, and footage quickly emerged of the plane plummeting towards the ground, along with photos of the wreckage.

The bodies found at the crash site have not yet been identified, the influential Rybar military blogger account said on Thursday. The account is thought to be run by a former Russian Defense Ministry employee. Another Russian outlet claimed Prigozhin's body had been transferred to a morgue and was being examined in Tver.

Yet the circumstances around the crash have inspired a wave of theories about who, or what, was responsible for the downing of the aircraft, and whether the outspoken Wagner leader was really among the casualties. The Russian Defense Ministry has not officially commented on the crash and has been contacted by Newsweek.

There is no clarity on the details, and it is one possibility of many that Prigozhin—and possibly Utkin—were not on that ill-fated flight and survived, according to Marina Miron, a post-doctoral researcher at the Department of War Studies at King's College London, U.K. If this is the case, "they will probably remain in the shadows forever, and we will only know the official story," she told Newsweek.

Another scenario could be that it was an "inside job" which still saw Prigozhin and Utkin walk away with their lives, Miron added. "Thus, both survived as a part of a larger plan to just disappear or resurface with changed names and appearances to serve Putin," she said. This possibility paints Putin as the one who has tackled the issue of the Wagner traitors, but the mercenary leaders could still be operating behind the scenes, she added.

The Wagner-affiliated Gray Zone Telegram channel said Prigozhin and Utkin had died "as a result of the actions of traitors to Russia," without specifying further. The channel also claimed the plane had been shot down by air defenses during its journey from Moscow to St. Petersburg.

Vladimir Rogov, an official with the Russian-backed authorities in Ukraine's southern Zaporizhzhia region, said he had received confirmation that Prigozhin and Utkin were dead, calling it a "murder."

No evidence has been provided to support any of the claims and theories.

President Joe Biden, along with several analysts, seemed to point the finger at Russian President Vladimir Putin. Although he did not know the details of the crash, "I'm not surprised," Biden said after the news hit the headlines.

"There's not much that happens in Russia that Putin's not behind," Biden said. "But I don't know enough to know the answer."

Was the Incident Staged?

Russian Telegram channel Baza, linked to Russia's security services, said on Wednesday that "Prigozhin has already 'died' before," adding the Wagner financier was thought to have died in a plane crash in the fall of 2019.

Russian media reported in October 2019 that Prigozhin may have been killed when an An-72 military transport plane crashed in the Democratic Republic of Congo. It later emerged he was not on the aircraft.

Reports that Prigozhin was killed are "likely false claims," former racing driver Igor Sushko said in a post to X, formerly known as Twitter. "This stinks of Putin's own plot to disappear," he said.

However, Sushko then said exiled Russian human rights activist, Vladimir Osechkin, was "99.999% certain that Prigozhin was indeed assassinated by Putin," claiming to cite Russian security sources.

"If I was Prigozhin, this is exactly how I'd plot my fake death," another social media user wrote. "Everyone would be happy; I could retire in peace."

Eastern-European outlet Visegrad 24 asked in a post to X: "Is it possible that the crash is a clever ploy by Prigozhin to fake his own death and disappear?"

Prigozhin Left After the Crash

Citing flight-tracking data, some speculate that a second plane owned by Prigozhin also left Moscow for St. Petersburg at around the same time, with some suggesting the Wagner chief was on this second plane.

Christo Grozev, of investigative outlet Bellingcat, added, "everyone is holding their breath" to see whether Prigozhin would emerge alive from the second jet.

"There is too little information known, but factually, we know that one of his two private jets crashed. The other one landed safely," Miron said.

A Prigozhin Doppelganger?

There has also been speculation in recent months about whether Prigozhin has been using a body double, as the Wagner leader previously lost part of a finger, yet appeared to have all of his digits intact in photographs from earlier this year.

Following the Wagner mutiny in late June, photographs also emerged appearing to show Prigozhin donning a range of disguises, including a series of wigs.

"He is a trickster, a troll," one source told Russian independent news outlet Meduza. "He has informants in various structures, so we have to wait."

Update 08/24/23, 7:20 a.m. ET: This article was updated with comment from Marina Miron.