Prigozhin's High Stakes Putin Play May Be Working

Wagner Group mercenary chief Yevgeny Prigozhin and Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov likely "effectively blackmailed" the Russian Defense Ministry into funneling resources to paramilitary fighters on the frontlines in eastern Ukraine, according to a new assessment.

On Saturday, Prigozhin said in a statement that at midnight on May 10, Chechen special forces would replace Wagner fighters in the fiercely contested Ukrainian city of Bakhmut, which is when the Russian oligarch said Wagner forces "will completely exhaust our combat potential."

Kadyrov, who commands the Chechen "Akhmat" battalion, said he had contacted Russian President Vladimir Putin and that his fighters were "ready to advance" to the ruined Donetsk city.

"The soldiers are on alert, we are just waiting for orders," he wrote on Telegram.

On Sunday, Prigozhin then said that the mercenary fighters in Ukraine would receive "as much ammunition and weapons as we need to continue hostilities." In a statement, which was also picked up by Russian state media, Prigozhin said the former commander of Russian forces in Ukraine General Sergey Surovikin was to be an intermediary between the Russian Defense Ministry and the Wagner forces.

Newsweek could not independently verify Prigozhin's statements and has contacted the Russian Defense Ministry, which has not officially commented, via email.

Prigozhin and Kadyrov "likely effectively blackmailed" the Russian defense ministry "by threatening to pull Kadyrov's Chechen forces from other parts of the theater to relieve Wagner forces in Bakhmut," the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said on Sunday.

Wagner mercenary forces have led Moscow's efforts to capture the Donbas city of Bakhmut, where both sides have sustained heavy casualties. But Prigozhin has publicly denounced the Russian Defense Ministry and Moscow's military command for what he said was a lack of ammunition supplies sent to the frontline Wagner forces. He has previously threatened to withdraw his fighters from Bakhmut and reiterated his complaints over "shell hunger" in a separate statement on Saturday.

Chechen forces have also been present in Ukraine throughout the Kremlin's invasion, although they have not had the profile of Wagner troops and have often acted as a disciplinary force, according to the U.K.-based Royal United Services Institute think tank. Chechen fighters have been observed around Bilohorivka, in the eastern Luhansk region, as well as the annexed southern region of Zaporizhzhia, the ISW said on Sunday.

The withdrawal of Chechen forces from other contested areas of Ukraine "likely posed a risk to Russian defensive lines, a risk that Gerasimov and Shoigu, or Putin, appear to have been unwilling to take," the ISW said in its daily update.

Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and theater commander General Valery Gerasimov may have "decided to allocate ammunition to Wagner at Putin's direction," the think tank added.

Despite Prigozhin's threats, Wagner forces continued to move forward in Bakhmut, according to Marina Miron, a post-doctoral researcher at the Department of War Studies at King's College London, U.K.

"Heavy battles" are still taking place in Bakhmut, the General Staff of Ukraine's Armed Forces said on Monday morning.

Kadyrov's stance does not necessarily support Prigozhin, despite both figures being "on the same page" in the fall of 2022, "but not any longer," Miron told Newsweek.

Footage published by Kadyrov "seems friendly to Wagner's Prigozhin; however, he makes it clear that Wagner is, indeed, replaceable," she added.

"The most important point is that Kadyrov suggested to the Wagner troops to join the "Akhmat" battalion," Miron argued. "So, here it is a matter of control over Wagner. And I think perhaps this was the possible turning point for Prigozhin."