Alarm Bells for Trump and Republicans in New Hampshire GOP Exit Poll

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Former President Donald Trump received a warning sign from New Hampshire Republican primary voters.

New Hampshire residents headed to the polls Tuesday to vote in the Granite State's Republican and Democratic primary elections. Republicans chose between Trump and former United Nations Ambassador and ex-South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley, the final high-profile Republicans remaining in the primary.

A CBS News exit poll of voters participating in the Republican primary delivered alarm bells for the Trump campaign ahead of the general election. In addition to being an early voting primary state, New Hampshire is also viewed as being competitive in the general election.

The poll found that 47 percent of GOP primary voters said they believe Trump would be unfit to serve as president if he is convicted of a crime in one of his four criminal trials. Trump has maintained his innocence in each case, pleading not guilty to all charges.

Trump in New Hampshire
Republican presidential candidate and former U.S. President Donald Trump on Tuesday visits a polling site at Londonderry High School in Londonderry, New Hampshire. Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

Fifty percent, however, said they believe he would still be fit to serve if convicted. The poll found that 85 percent of Haley voters were more likely to believe a conviction would render him unfit, compared to 11 percent of Trump voters. Only 12 percent of Haley voters said they believe Trump would still be fit to serve if he gets convicted. Among Trump voters, that number was 86 percent, according to the poll.

That figure notably included many independent voters, who opted to vote in the Republican primary. Haley in particular aimed to garner support from these voters, as a key component of her campaign messaging is that she would be a more electable candidate than Trump against a Democrat.

Some political experts have said that the felony charges leveled against Trump have helped Republicans coalesce around the former president in the primary. But polls have suggested a conviction may hurt Trump in the general election.

Haley has pointed to several polls showing her leading President Joe Biden by a wider margin than Trump would in hypothetical general matchups to make her electability argument. While Trump has sought to turn out his core base of supporters, Haley has appealed to more traditional conservatives and independent voters.

The final days of the campaign saw Haley ramp up critiques of Trump, including questioning whether Trump should be the nominee, based on his age. Trump is 77 years old, while Biden is 81.

Trump has attacked Haley as a "RINO," the derisive acronym for "Republican in name only," to solidify his support among the party's conservative voters.

Newsweek reached out to Trump's campaign for comment via email on Tuesday night.

Update 1/23/24, 8:02 p.m. ET: This article was updated with additional information.

About the writer

Andrew Stanton is a Newsweek weekend reporter based in Maine. His role is reporting on U.S. politics and social issues. Andrew joined Newsweek in 2021 from The Boston Globe. He is a graduate of Emerson College. You can get in touch with Andrew by emailing a.stanton@newsweek.com. Languages: English.


Andrew Stanton is a Newsweek weekend reporter based in Maine. His role is reporting on U.S. politics and social issues. ... Read more