Democrats' Chances of Beating GOP to Hold Senate With Two Weeks to Midterm

Election forecasters say that Democrats and Republicans are in a close race for control of the Senate ahead of the midterms. However, some analysts believe Democrats have an edge and are likely to maintain control of the upper chamber after this year's election.

FiveThirtyEight predicts that Democrats have a 55 percent chance of maintaining control of the Senate, while the GOP has a 45 percent chance. Meanwhile, The Economist said Democrats win control of the Senate 80 out of 100 simulations of the November elections, while Politico predicts that race for control of the Senate remains a "toss-up."

The outlet notes that the most uncertain Senate races include those in New Hampshire, Colorado and Arizona, which "lean" Democratic, Florida, Ohio and North Carolina, which "lean" Republican, and Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Georgia and Nevada, which are labeled "toss-ups".

Georgia Senate Race

The latest polling in the Georgia Senate race has shown a slight advantage for incumbent Democratic Senator Raphael Warnock. An InsiderAdvantage poll released last week found that Warnock leads GOP candidate Herschel Walker, 46 to 43 percent. The survey contacted 550 likely voters and has a margin of error of 4.2 percent. However, the latest poll in the race from Landmark Communications found Walker and Warnock tied with 46 percent each, according to FiveThirtyEight.

Ohio Senate Race

In Ohio, Republican Senate candidate J.D. Vance appears to have an edge over Democratic Congressman Tim Ryan who is also vying for the seat. According to FiveThirtyEight's polling average for the race, Vance has support from 45.8 percent of voters, while Ryan has 44.5 percent. A recent poll from Suffolk University found Vance leading Ryan 47 to 45 percent. The survey contacted 500 likely voters and has a margin of error of 4.4 percent.

Pennsylvania Senate Race

Democratic Pennsylvania Lieutenant Governor John Fetterman appears to be leading Republican Senate candidate Dr. Mehmet Oz in that state's highly contested race. FiveThirtyEight's polling average shows Fetterman with backing of 46.6 percent of voters while Oz has 44.4 percent. An InsiderAdvantage/FOX 29 poll published last week, however, found both candidates tied with 46 percent. That poll surveyed 550 likely voters and has a margin of error of 4.2 percent.

Nevada Senate Race

Democratic incumbent Senator Catherine Cortez-Masto and the state's former Republican attorney general, Adam Laxalt, are also locked in a tight race. Laxalt is slightly up in the polls, leading Cortez Masto 46 to 45.6 percent, according to FiveThirtyEight's average. A CBS poll from October 20 found Laxalt leading Cortez-Masto 49 to 48 percent. The poll's margin of error was 4.4 percent and 1,057 voters were surveyed.

North Carolina Senate Race

In North Carolina, Democratic candidate Cheri Beasley has been polling behind GOP Congressman Ted Budd in their race for the Senate. The latest poll, which was released by the Trafalgar Group this month, found Budd leading Beasley 48 to 44 percent. That survey did not disclose its margin of error. Meanwhile, another poll from East Carolina University published this month found Budd with 50 percent and Beasley with 44 percent. The poll surveyed 902 likely voters and has a margin of error of 3.8 percent.

Wisconsin Senate Race

Wisconsin incumbent Republican Senator Ron Johnson is facing a serious challenge from Democratic Lieutenant Governor Mandela Barnes. Johnson is up in the race's overall polling average leading Barnes with 49.5 to 46.6 percent, according to FiveThirtyEight. An October 12 poll from Marquette Law School found Johnson leading Barnes 52 to 46 percent. The poll surveyed 801 Wisconsin registered voters, with a margin of error of 4.3 percent. However, another poll of all registered voters from the law school found Barnes and Johnson tied with 47 percent each.

Arizona Senate Race

In Arizona, incumbent Democratic Senator Mark Kelly maintains a lead over his Republican challenger Blake Masters. A poll from the Trafalgar Group released last week found Kelly up by 1 point—leading Masters 47.4 to 46.4 percent. The poll contacted 1,078 respondents and has a margin of error of 2.9 percent. Another poll from InsiderAdvantage and FOX 10 released in mid-October found Kelly with a larger, 46-42 percent lead over his opponent. The survey contacted 550 voters and has a margin of error of 4.2 percent.

Newsweek has reached out to the Democratic National Committee (DNC) and Republican National Committee (RNC) for comment.