Democrats' Chances of Keeping the Senate With Two Weeks to Midterms

Polls from the summer had shifted the Democrats' midterm outlook with a surprisingly optimistic trend. But the tide turned again with the arrival of fall, and now, with two weeks until Election Day, Democrats' chances of retaining control of the U.S. Senate have narrowed.

As of Monday, Democrats were still projected to win the Senate with a 56-in-100 chance, according to FiveThirtyEight. In mid-September, those chances were 71 in 100.

Currently, Democrats hold 50 seats in the Senate. With Vice President Kamala Harris as the tie-breaking vote, Senate Democrats could continue to approve President Joe Biden's nomination of judges in the next term of Congress—the only measure that doesn't run the chance of being filibustered by Republicans.

However, if Republicans successfully take the Senate—and election forecasting shows increasingly easy paths to victory—it will be likely for the GOP to block any spending requests from Biden, to force Congress to reauthorize Social Security and Medicare every five years (rather than allowing the programs to continue automatically), and to bring a vote on a national abortion ban.

In the final weeks of the election cycle, here's what Democrats will need to keep control of the Senate.

New Districts

The only open seat Democrats are poised to pick up is in Vermont, where candidates are running to fill the vacant seat left by Democrat Patrick Leahy, who has held the seat since 1975.

The Cook Political Report has the race as a "solid" Democrat win for Representative Peter Welch, who FiveThirtyEight says has a more than 99 in 100 chances of winning.

Sitting Incumbents

Of the four Senate races still declared a "toss-up" by Cook, two feature incumbent Democrats. Senators Raphael Warnock of Georgia and Catherine Cortez Masto of Nevada are fighting off a real challenge from Republicans Herschel Walker and Adam Laxalt to hold onto their seats.

In Georgia, Warnock is ahead by 3.3 percentage points—a lead that has grown in the last month. While in Nevada, the two candidates are neck-and-neck, with Cortez Masto narrowly trailing behind her GOP opponent by 0.3 points.

There are another 11 Democratic senators who are projected to hold onto their seats this year, with 7 races marked "solid" Democrat, one race classified as "likely" Democrat and three "lean" Democrat, according to the Cook Political Report.

The senators expected to keep their seats are: Alex Padilla of California, Richard Blumenthal of Connecticut, Brian Schatz of Hawaii, Tammy Duckworth of Illinois, Chris Van Hollen of Maryland, Chuck Schumer of New York, Ron Wyden of Oregon, Patty Murray of Washington, Mark Kelly of Arizona, Michael Bennet of Colorado and Maggie Hassan of New Hampshire.

Toss-Ups

The other two Senate races marked as a toss-up are in Pennsylvania, where Democratic candidate John Fetterman is facing off against Republican Mehmet Oz for the state's open seat, and in Wisconsin, where GOP Senator Ron Johnson is trying to keep his seat from Democrat Mandela Barnes.

Although Fetterman held a commanding lead for much of the run-up to the midterms, Oz has been able to close the gap. Fetterman, who had a double-digit lead during the summer, is only ahead of Oz by 2.2 points as of this past weekend, according to FiveThirtyEight.

The chance of the Democrat defeating the Republican is more unlikely in Wisconsin, where Johnson has a 2.9-point advantage, even though Barnes had the lead by a much larger margin up until last month.