Dems' Chances of Beating GOP for Congress Control With 1 Month to Midterm

With just a little less than one month until the November 8 midterm elections, Democrats hoping to retain or expand their majority in Congress are nearly tied with Republicans for control of the House of Representatives.

Republicans hoped President Joe Biden's once-dismal approval rating would help them ride a "red wave" to victory during the midterms. However, his approval rating rose throughout the fall, and the Supreme Court's overturning of Roe v. Wade, the decision that guaranteed abortion rights across the United States, gave Democrats a boost ahead of the election.

Now, Democrats see a path—albeit a narrow one—to retain control of Congress.

Democrats hold a 0.9 point lead over Republicans on the "generic ballot," which asks voters if they would prefer a Democrat or Republican representative in Congress. According to FiveThirtyEight's aggregate of recent polling, 45.4 percent of voters prefer a Democrat, while 44.5 percent plan to vote for a Republican.

Despite the small lead, Republicans are still seen as being favored to flip control of the House, as some states like Texas and Florida drew congressional maps to favor Republicans. Democrats, however, are expected to hold their Senate majority as swing state Republicans face scandals and difficult polling.

Key Races Will Decide Control of Congress

Control of Congress will run through a handful of battleground races where both parties are vying for victory. Democrats currently hold a slight majority of 220 seats, compared to Republicans' 212 seats—meaning Republicans would only need to flip six seats to win the majority of 218 districts. Many competitive seats are suburban in nature that Biden narrowly won in the 2020 presidential election.

Here is a look at three races that could determine control of Congress.

In Virginia's Second Congressional District, Democratic incumbent Elaine Luria—first elected during the 2018 "blue wave" election—will face off against Republican Jen Kiggans. The race is seen as a bellwether that will provide an early insight into the national environment. The district encompasses Virginia Beach and other parts of the southeast, and was won by Biden by 3.1 points in 2020. The race is seen as a pure tossup, with Kiggans winning FiveThirtyEight's algorithm 51 percent of the time.

Republicans are also banking on victory in seats where Biden won by a larger margin. In Oregon's Fifth Congressional District, Democrat Jamie McLeod-Skinner, who defeated Representative Kurt Schrader in the primary, will face off against Republican Lori Chavez-DeRemer. According to FiveThirtyEight's algorithm, Chavez-DeRemer wins 54 percent of the time. Even though Biden won the seat by about nine points in 2020, the seat is viewed as a toss-up that could determine control of Congress.

Some incumbents also found themselves in tighter-than-expected races due to redistricting.

GOP Representative Yvette Herrell in New Mexico's Second Congressional District narrowly won in 2020, despite Trump easily carrying the district. However, the seat was redrawn to have a Democratic lean. Herrell, a staunch conservative, is now in for a tossup race against Democrat Gabriel Vasquez, but remains slightly favored, according to FiveThirtyEight.

Democrats Favored to Hold Senate

Meanwhile, Democrats remain favored to win control of Congress' upper chamber, according to recent polls. Races in Georgia, Nevada and Pennsylvania could determine which party wins a majority in the Senate. Currently, the Senate is comprised of 50 Republicans, 48 Democrats and two independents who caucus with Democrats. Vice President Kamala Harris, a Democrat, casts the tie-breaking vote, giving Democrats a functional majority.

In Georgia, Democrat Raphael Warnock is set to face Herschel Walker, who is facing scrutiny for supporting anti-abortion policies despite allegedly paying for a past abortion for an ex-girlfriend—though Walker has denied the allegations.

The scandal hasn't completely wiped out his odds of winning, as the evenly divided state's Senate race is still seen as highly competitive. However, it could provide a boost to Warnock, who won his first election during a 2021 runoff.

Republicans also view Nevada as one of their top pickup opportunities. Nevada gave Democrats victories at the statewide level during the Trump era, but Biden only won the state by fewer than three points in 2020. Former Attorney General Adam Laxalt is seen as one of the party's strongest recruits of the midterms. According to FiveThirtyEight's aggregate of recent polls, he leads Democratic Senator Catherine Cortez Masto by 1.5 points.

Meanwhile, Democrats view flipping Pennsylvania's Senate seat, being vacated by Senator Pat Toomey, as their best chance at expanding their majority. Democratic Lieutenant Governor John Fetterman is slightly favored over Dr. Mehmet Oz. He leads by an average of 6.7 points, according to FiveThirtyEight's polling aggregate.

Newsweek reached out to the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee for comment.