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Former President Donald Trump won convincingly in the first Republican contest of the 2024 race, but his bubble could burst next week when voters in New Hampshire decide which GOP candidate they want to win the party's nomination.
Trump easily declared victory in Iowa on Monday night, winning in all but one of the state's 99 counties and crushing his closest opponent by roughly 30 points. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis placed second with 21 percent of the vote and former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley followed closely in third with 19 percent of the vote.
All eyes are now on New Hampshire, where the primaries will be held on January 23. Trump and Haley both held events in the Granite State last night, while DeSantis appeared at a CNN town hall. Two GOP debates were scheduled to be held in New Hampshire ahead of the first-in-the-nation primary, on Thursday and Saturday, but both were canceled after Haley refused to participate unless Trump did. Trump has not appeared in a single debate in the 2024 race.
The contest will be especially competitive since Trump is not expected to repeat his landslide Iowa win. In New Hampshire, independents make up roughly 42 percent of the state's registered voters, outnumbering both registered Republicans and Democrats. That statistic is especially important in New Hampshire because of the state's open primary system, which allows independent voters to cast a ballot for candidates in either party.
"Trump has more or less said that he is inevitable; that no matter what anyone says or does, he has this in the bag because polls show him with an overwhelming lead," political consultant Jay Townsend told Newsweek.
He added that may be true, but if the outcome of New Hampshire's primary is anything other than a blowout, "it will burst Trump's inevitability bubble."
Haley, who has declared the Republican contest a "two-person race" between her and Trump, is expected to perform well in New Hampshire, despite her third place in Iowa. Polls show that Haley does better than Trump among independents and her RealClearPolling average puts her only 14 percentage points behind the former president. Nationally, she trails him by nearly 50 points. Haley has also been endorsed by New Hampshire Governor Chris Sununu.
DeSantis' score in New Hampshire is even lower than former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, who has suspended his campaign. Additionally, support for Christie, the most vocal Trump critic in the GOP field, suggests that New Hampshire voters see the appeal in a non-Trump alternative for the party nomination. A CNN/University of New Hampshire poll released earlier this month found that 65 percent of Christie's supporters would turn to Haley if he wasn't on the primary ballot.
Independents made up 34 percent of Haley supporters in Iowa and 42 percent of Trump supporters, exit polls showed. Although Trump won the plurality of independents, those numbers still signal good news for Haley, who only saw 15 percent support among all Republicans.
"Independents, as a whole, are not Trump fans and generally more moderate," Townsend said. "So expect anti-Trump independents to use this opportunity to register their displeasure with Trump."
Because independents outnumber Republicans in New Hampshire, Haley could come out on top without a single Republican vote. Theoretically, if every registered independent in New Hampshire voted for Haley and all registered Republicans voted for Trump, Haley would still win.
"New Hampshire has a history of rejecting the winners of the Iowa caucuses," Townsend said. "Their way of saying they're not ready for the race to be over."
Republican strategist Alex Patton agreed that Haley's strength is with independent voters in New Hampshire, but stressed that because independents often poll better ahead of an election than when it comes to time to vote, "turnout will really matter."
"Independents make up a larger share in New Hampshire, so relative to other candidates—not named Trump—Haley should do well and try and drive a narrative that's it's a two person race," Patton told Newsweek.
However, Patton warned about the downside to relying on independents, saying that doing so wouldn't be a good idea for Haley since it's likely "Trump will attack her as not a 'real' Republican."
Update 1/17/24, 12:25 a.m. ET: This story was updated to say the two scheduled GOP debates in New Hampshire were canceled.
About the writer
Katherine Fung is a Newsweek senior reporter based in New York City. She has covered U.S. politics and culture extensively. ... Read more