Nikki Haley's Sole Victory in Iowa Was as Close as Possible

Former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley widely lost the Iowa caucuses, winning in only one county and by the closest margin possible, despite recent perceived boosts to her presidential campaign.

Former President Donald Trump held on to his frontrunner position in the Republican primary field Monday night in Iowa, winning in all but one of the state's 99 counties, Johnson County, which Haley took by a single vote. Haley secured 1,271 votes in the county, which is home to the University of Iowa, to Trump's 1,270. Trump won the other 98 counties handily.

Trump took home 51 percent of the vote in Iowa, with Florida Governor Ron DeSantis placing second with 21 percent and Haley in third with 19 percent. Entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy dropped out after coming fourth and promptly endorsed Trump.

Polls had widely predicted that Trump would dominate in Iowa even before 2024's first GOP contest. RealClearPolling averages before the caucuses showed the former president with a 36-point advantage over Haley, who had about 17 percent support among GOP voters in the Hawkeye State. But Trump's Monday victory was an even bigger-than-expected blow to Haley, who had been gaining momentum against the Republican frontrunner in the polls in recent weeks.

Support for Haley had been steadily growing throughout the presidential debates during the fall, and she managed to pull ahead of DeSantis to second place in an Iowa poll four days before the caucuses. Haley's campaign also benefited from former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie's decision to suspend his White House bid last week. A CNN/University of New Hampshire poll released last Tuesday found that 65 percent of Christie's supporters would turn to Haley if he wasn't on the primary ballot. Haley's presidential bid also got a huge boost in November after Americans for Prosperity Action, a GOP donor group founded by Charles Koch, threw its "full support" behind her. Koch, a billionaire, is one of the GOP's biggest donors.

While Iowa has not always proved it can predict the party's nominee—Trump came in second to Senator Ted Cruz in the 2016 Iowa caucuses—Monday's results suggest Haley needs to make significant gains to win the Republican nomination.

"When you look at how well we're doing in New Hampshire, in South Carolina and beyond, I can safely say tonight Iowa made this Republican primary a two-person race," Haley told her supporters on Monday night.

Newsweek has contacted Haley's campaign for comment.

Haley is expected to perform well in the next state, New Hampshire, which is holding its primary on January 23. The "undeclared" account for 40 percent of the state's voters, and polls show that Haley does better than Trump among independent voters. She has also secured the endorsement of New Hampshire Governor Chris Sununu. RealClearPolling shows Haley is trailing Trump by just 14 points in the Granite State.

But to make up for her loss in Iowa, she will need to prevail in her home state of South Carolina, where she served as governor from 2011 to 2017. The primary takes place on February 24. Trump is up by 30 points over Haley in the state, RealClearPolling averages indicate.

And though the former U.N. ambassador has declared the primary a "two-person race" between her and Trump, DeSantis' Monday performance suggests Haley has her work cut out for her. Even though DeSantis' advantage over her was narrow—just over 2 percentage points—the final results were celebrated by the governor's campaign, which had recently faced a series of headwinds that questioned if he was still a viable threat to Trump.

"They threw everything but the kitchen sink at us," DeSantis said Monday. "Because of your support in spite of all of what they threw at us, we got our ticket punched out of Iowa."