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While Donald Trump easily won the New Hampshire primary on Tuesday, the results suggest that the former president may struggle to win over the potential key demographic of independent voters at the 2024 general election.
Trump's victory in New Hampshire means it is looking increasingly likely that he will clinch the GOP presidential nomination, with the former president achieving more than 54 percent of the vote and Nikki Haley, the only serious challenger left in the Republican primary, coming in second at a little over 43 percent.
It was expected that New Hampshire would be a closer race than the Iowa Caucus —where Trump beat Ron DeSantis into second place by a record-breaking 30 points, prompting the Florida governor to drop out of the race—due to the Granite State being considered more moderate and having fewer evangelical voters, both of which would play in Haley's favor.
As expected, Haley overwhelmingly got the support of independent voters on Tuesday, with exit polls from CNN and ABC News showing the former South Carolina governor received 60 percent and 61 percent from this potentially key demographic respectively.
While Trump can easily rely on his strong MAGA and GOP base for support in the Republican primary, Tuesday's results suggest that the former present could have difficulty winning votes from independents and moderates, a demographic who may be considered key in the general election in places like New Hampshire as well as several swing states.
According to an Associated Press VoteCast survey of 1,989 Republican New Hampshire primary voters, about half of Haley's supporters in New Hampshire's primary voted for Biden in 2020.
Rachel Bitecofer, a political strategist and election forecaster, suggested that Trump got "absolutely crushed" by Haley with independent voters in New Hampshire while sharing poll results showing she got 61 percent support from the demographic, compared to Trump's 37 percent.
"GOP strategists will want to puke when they see that margin," Bitecofer posted on X, formerly Twitter.
Another exit poll from Reuters found that around 35 percent of those who took part in Tuesday's primary vote considered themselves moderates or liberals, of which only around one in five backed Trump.
Arizona-based Republican strategist Chuck Coughlin noted the implications this may have for Trump if these results are projected nationwide in November.
"Trump's coalition is static and predictable. His base is too small to win a presidential election," Coughlin told Reuters.
Trump's office has been contacted for comment via email.
Despite ongoing concern about his approval ratings and poll numbers, there are indications that Biden is the preferred choice of candidate over Trump among independents.
According to a New York Times/Siena College poll in December, Biden has the backing of 50 percent of independent voters, compared to 38 percent for Trump.
Another recent survey from Susquehanna Polling showed Biden with a significant 23-point lead over Trump among independents in the key swing state of Pennsylvania (48-25 percent). The president has an 8-point lead (47-39 percent) over Trump overall in Pennsylvania, according to the poll.
Trump, who has pleaded not guilty to 91 felony charges across four investigations, also has the results of his upcoming trials looming over his presidential campaign.
According to the CNN exit poll, 42 percent of voters in the New Hampshire GOP primary said Trump would not be fit for the presidency if he is convicted of a crime.
Trump has denied all wrongdoing in the investigations into him and has accused the inquiries of being politically motivated "witch hunts" that aim to prevent him from winning the 2024 race.
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About the writer
Ewan Palmer is a Newsweek News Reporter based in London, U.K. His focus is reporting on US politics, and Florida ... Read more