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Nikki Haley and Donald Trump are neck-and-neck in the New Hampshire GOP primary, with the former South Carolina governor the preferred Republican candidate among male voters, according to a poll.
An American Research Group Inc survey of 600 likely voters showed that Haley and Trump are both tied on 40 percent when respondents were asked who they want as the Republican 2024 presidential nominee, with Haley getting more support than the former president from men, voters aged under 49 and undeclared/independent voters.
The poll was published after Trump dominated the Iowa caucus on Monday night, achieving 51 percent of the votes and beating Ron DeSantis into second place by a record 30-point margin. Haley, who many consider Trump's main challenger in the primary, only managed third place in Iowa with 19 percent, but is expected to present a greater challenge in the New Hampshire primary on January 23.
A previous American Research Group Inc poll released in early January showed that Haley had narrowed Trump's lead to just four points in New Hampshire, a margin she has now fully closed heading into the crucial early primary state vote.
When broken down further, Haley is the more preferred candidate among male voters in New Hampshire (44 percent), with Trump at 37 percent. The former president does get more support among female voters than Haley in the poll (43 percent to 36 percent respectively).
These results match trends that appear to follow Haley nationally. According to FiveThirtyEight's analysis of GOP primary surveys, men are Haley's second strongest group of supporters, with college-educated Republicans, around one-fifth of whom back Haley for president, her strongest demographic.
The American Research Group Inc poll also showed Haley (40 percent) narrowly beat Trump (39 percent) from those aged 18-49 in New Hampshire. The former South Carolina governor is also heavily preferred among undeclared voters (51 percent) than the MAGA Republicans (24 percent), a reason why Haley is fingered as having a better chance in the Granite State as it seen to have more moderate voters than in Iowa.
Elsewhere, Haley and Trump are also closely tied between those who said they are "definite" to vote in New Hampshire (39 percent and 41 percent), with Haley getting more support (51 percent) from the minority group who said they will "probably" take part in the January 23 election.
Trump's and Haley's offices have been contacted for comment via email.
Despite coming third in Iowa, Haley told a crowd of her supporters on Monday night that "when you look at what we're doing in New Hampshire, in South Carolina, and beyond, I can safely say tonight Iowa made this Republican primary a two-person race."
Haley's claim that the primary is now only between her and Trump also resulted in her pulling out of an upcoming debate with DeSantis in New Hampshire on Thursday because the former president would not take part again.
"We've had five great debates in this campaign. Unfortunately, Donald Trump has ducked all of them," Haley posted on X, formerly Twitter.
"He has nowhere left to hide. The next debate I do will either be with Donald Trump or with Joe Biden. I look forward to it."
ABC News has since canceled the planned GOP primary debate.
In a series of posts on Truth Social, Trump attacked Haley as the New Hampshire primary approaches, including mocking her over her Iowa speech while misspelling her full first name, Nimarata.
"Anyone listening to Nikki 'Nimrada' Haley's wacked out speech last night, would think that she won the Iowa Primary. She didn't, and she couldn't even beat a very flawed Ron DeSanctimonious, who's out of money, and out of hope," Trump wrote.
"Nikki came in a distant THIRD! She said she would never run against me, 'he was a great President,' and she should have followed her own advice. Now she's stuck with WEAK POLICIES, and a VERY STRONG MAGA BASE, and there's just nothing she can do!"
The American Research Group Inc poll involved 600 telephone interviews with likely Republican primary voters, including 406 Republicans and 194 undeclared (independent) voters. The margin of error is four percentage points.
About the writer
Ewan Palmer is a Newsweek News Reporter based in London, U.K. His focus is reporting on US politics, and Florida ... Read more