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Donald Trump looks set to be confirmed as the Republican Party's 2024 presidential nomination with Nikki Haley dropping out of the race, meaning there are potentially scores of her supporters across the country for the former president to try and win over.
On Wednesday morning, Haley is expected to confirm in Charleston, South Carolina, that she is officially suspending her presidential campaign. This will pave the way for Trump to clinch the 2024 GOP nomination and set up a rematch of the 2020 race against President Joe Biden in November.
The announcement arrives as Trump further proved his domination in the GOP primary after nearly executing a clean sweep of victories on Super Tuesday. Trump won all but one of the 15 states that voted on March 5, with Haley winning her second race of the campaign in the strong Blue state of Vermont.
While Trump has long been considered the overwhelming favorite in the GOP primary, Super Tuesday's results indicated that he may not have as strong as support among Republican voters his resounding victories suggest.
Haley, considered a more moderate Republican candidate, received more than two million votes on Super Tuesday and still achieved about 20 to 40 percent support in some states over Trump.
Now that Haley is no longer in the running, the question remains whether Trump, whose MAGA agenda and legal difficulties are divisive even among some GOP factions, can gather these voters to help him beat Biden in November.
Danielle Vinson, a professor of politics and international affairs at Furman University in South Carolina, suggests that Haley's supporters will not behave in a "monolithic" way, but could be divided into three sections: Those who will move to Trump in order to stop Biden's reelection, the "Never Trump" crowd who believe he will be worse than a Democratic president, and those who will choose not to vote in November or back an Independent candidate in protest.
"The interesting question will be what the Haley supporters in swing states decide to do," Vinson told Newsweek.
"In those states, staying home or voting independent might be a less appealing choice. The election may hinge on them and their choices.
"For Haley supporters in staunchly red or blue states, they have the luxury of casting protest votes or staying home without affecting the outcome."
On Tuesday, Biden's campaign team posted a video on social media featuring several Haley supporters saying they would rather support the Democratic president than Trump, suggesting it is far from certain that Haley's voters will still vote Republican in November.
Elsewhere, an exit poll conducted by NBC News Tuesday night found that about one-third of Republican voters in states where Trump won on Super Tuesday—North Carolina (35 percent), Virginia (36 percent) and California (33 percent)—said they could not guarantee they would support the GOP presidential candidate in November.
Christopher Borick, a professor of political science and director of the Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion in Pennsylvania, suggested that Haley's supporters will go on to play a "significant, and perhaps determinative role" in the outcome of the general election
These include the majority of Haley's supporters who will "grudgingly" vote for Trump in November as they are still Republicans.
"But for Haley supporters who are independents or alienated Republicans, the general election choice is less clear," Borick told Newsweek.
"If they were drawn to Haley out of a desire to stop Trump, that incentive will likely manifest in a vote for Biden this fall. But if they were drawn to Haley by her brand of politics or her identity, their ultimate choice this fall may be to sit it out or consider a third-party option.
"While this group is a small sliver of the electorate, the results from 2016 and 2020 show us just how impactful marginal segments of the electorate can be."
Haley is not planning on endorsing Trump after dropping out of the race. Instead, she will call on the former president to try to gain the support of the more moderate Republican and independent voters who have backed her White House bid.
In a statement ahead of Haley's expected announcement in Charleston, Taylor Budowich, CEO of the Trump-affiliated Make America Great Again Inc. Super PAC, said: "Congratulations to President Donald Trump for vanquishing his opponents in record time.
"The same movement that powered President Trump to a primary victory will power him to a general election victory. Voters are eager to have the prosperity and safety of the Trump presidency restored."
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About the writer
Ewan Palmer is a Newsweek News Reporter based in London, U.K. His focus is reporting on US politics, and Florida ... Read more