Election Day 2023 Offers Congress an Abortion 'Wake-Up Call' as 2024 Nears

The results from last night's election results sent a resounding message to lawmakers on Capitol Hill that the abortion issue isn't going away any time soon, and both parties need to take note that voters will not accept the federal government limiting their rights.

Despite starting the week with a devastating poll from The New York Times and Siena College showing President Joe Biden's approval rating in swing states underwater, Democratic Governor Andy Beshear cruised to victory in solidly red Kentucky, and voters in red Ohio voted in favor of enshrining abortion rights into the state's constitution.

Republicans went on the offensive in Virginia as GOP Governor Glenn Youngkin campaigned to flip the state legislature red on the promise of enacting a 15-week ban with exceptions for rape, incest, and the life of the mother. Instead of the message carrying his party of victory, Republicans failed to take the Virginia Senate and lost control of the General Assembly.

"I do think that it showed that individual constitutional rights really matter to people, even if they never intend to use them," Senator Cynthia Lummis of Wyoming, one of nine Republican women serving in the upper chamber, told Newsweek. "I felt last night's election was a real wake-up call, a real wake-up call. I don't discount it in any way as significant as we lean into 2024."

Lummis notes that while few Americans have abortions—in 2020, the rate was 11 abortions per every 1,000 women, per the Centers for Disease Control—the issue has continued to galvanize people to the polls in a way that has been detrimental to Republicans.

She acknowledges that different states have different attitudes toward the issue which is part of the reason why she is "actually opposed to legislating at the federal level on abortion." Instead of focusing on abortion, Lummis said she plans to work with her colleagues on issues that are "pro-women and pro-baby" to develop federal solutions there.

Similarly, Republican Senator John Neely Kennedy of Louisiana said that even if the makeup of the Senate were to shift and allow Congress to take legislative action regarding abortion, he's not "completely convinced that it ought to."

"It's very clear to me at this juncture that the American people, included but not limited to many American women, are leery of categorical rules," Kennedy told Newsweek. "In other words, I think most Americans agree with the idea of a state-by-state resolution of that issue by the people."

Kennedy said the Supreme Court has made it clear that abortion should be handled at the state level and expects that in "five to seven years" the issue will largely be settled with different states having different laws addressing the issue.

However, while those laws continue to come to fruition, Republicans still appear vulnerable when abortion access is framed in a national context and placed as a central campaign messaging point in less socially conservative regions. Democratic Senator Chris Murphy of Connecticut sees last night's results as a sign that the topic won't be going away.

"This is a catastrophic issue for Republicans, and every single election that happens continues to prove that," Murphy told Newsweek. "There're even voters out there who don't support abortion who also don't want the government making that choice."

Abortion rights as a central messaging point helped Democrats pick up a Senate seat in 2022 and avoid significant losses in the House after many political observers predicted a "red wave" due to Biden's low popularity.

Speaking to reporters, Senator Steve Daines of Montana, chair of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, said the focus of the 2024 elections will be different because "Joe Biden's gonna be on the ballot" and "they have to run on their record." On abortion, he doubled down on his position that most Americans want to see some limits on abortion.

Still, despite Biden's disapproval rating currently clocking in around 56 percent, according to FiveThirtyEight, Democrats have reason to believe the abortion issue could continue swinging results in their favor.

In 2022, the red states of Kentucky, Kansas, and Montana all rejected ballot measures aimed at restricting abortion. Democrats, come 2024, will defend seats in the red states of Montana and Ohio as well as the swing states of Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, all places where Republican candidates and potential candidates have records advocating for restrictions on abortion.

While Senator Gary Peters of Michigan, chair of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, is by no means oblivious to the president's low polling numbers, he stressed that come election day turnout is what matters, and so far, abortion has motivated turnout among those on the left.

"The only polls that matter are elections, the actual people who show up," Peters told Newsweek. "We're still a long way from the election, but I always take polls with a grain of salt."