Five Republican Incumbents Most Vulnerable to Losing Their Races

Polls suggest the Republican Party will have cause to celebrate in this year's midterm elections with the GOP widely expected to take control of the House of Representatives.

Republicans could also clinch control of the Senate as polling analysis suggest the contest for the chamber is a dead heat amid closes races across the country heading into the November 8 elections.

"Incumbents typically have an advantage—in name recognition, fundraising, and general capacity that can help to mobilize on-the-ground support," Thomas Gift, founding director of University College London's Center on U.S. Politics, told Newsweek.

"Although voters often say they want 'disruptors' and 'outsiders,' data generally suggest otherwise," he said. "While some experts have claimed that the incumbency advantage has waned in recent years, the preference that voters display for incumbents, particularly in congressional races, is one of the most established and robust findings in political science."

However, at least some Republican incumbents appear to be facing a tough battle for re-election.

Here are five Republicans who are vulnerable in 2022.

Lisa Murkowski

Senator Lisa Murkowski is seeking re-election in a unique race that's taking place in Alaska under the state's new ranked choice voting system. She's facing fellow Republican Kelly Tshibaka.

Murkowski was appointed to the U.S. Senate in 2002 and is hoping for a fourth full term but she's facing stiff competition in Tshibaka, who has been endorsed by former President Donald Trump.

The ranked choice system allows voters to rank their preferred candidates. A candidate wins the election if they garner 50 percent plus one of the votes cast. If nobody reaches that threshold after ballots are counted, the candidate with the lowest number of first preferences is eliminated and their voters' second preferences are then counted and distributed.

That means Tshibaka could defeat Murkowski when all the votes are counted. Democrat Pat Chesbro is also running in the election and it's possible her second preferences could swing the result.

An Alaska Survey Research poll conducted from October 19 to 22 found Murkowski with 42 percent support, Tshibaka on 41 percent and Chesbro with 17 percent. The same poll found that voters opted for Murkowski over Tshibaka when Chesbro was excluded—with the senator enjoying 56 percent support to her opponent's 45 percent.

Mayra Flores

Representative Mayra Flores became the first Mexican-born woman elected to serve in Congress when she triumphed in a special election in Texas' 34th congressional district in June.

She's now running for a full term in a somewhat unusual race against Democratic Representative Vicente Gonzalez, who currently represents the state's 15th district but is now running in the 34th due to recent redistricting.

FiveThirtyEight rates the House race as a dead heat but the district has been solidly blue in the past, with former Democratic Representative Filemon Vela Jr. representing it from 2013 until he stepped down earlier this year.

David Valadao

Representative David Valadao is slightly favored to win his race in California's 22nd district against Democratic challenger Rudy Salas, according to FiveThirtyEight's analysis, but he appears to be having a more difficult time than many of his GOP colleagues.

Valadao was one of 10 House Republicans who voted to impeach Trump during his second impeachment following the Capitol riot in 2021 and one of just two of those representatives to be re-nominated in this year's primaries and he was endorsed by House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy.

Republican strategist Jon Fleischman told The Los Angeles Times in May that Valadao is "holding on to a seat that can't be won by any other Republican."

Polling in the race has been relatively limited, but FiveThirtyEight gives Valadao a 57 percent chance of winning compared to Salas' 43 percent.

Ron Johnson

Polling has been notably mixed in the Wisconsin Senate race where Republican Senator Ron Johnson is seeking a third term. He's facing Democratic Lieutenant Governor Mandela Barnes.

FiveThirtyEight rates Johnson as favored to win but recent polls have suggested the race could be close. A YouGov poll conducted October 3 to 7 showed Johnson just one point ahead—50 percent to Barnes' 49 percent.

A CNN/SRS poll conducted from October 13 to 17 found the same result, but a Data for Progress poll conducted from October 14 to 22 showed Johnson leading with 51 percent to Barnes' 46 percent.

A Barnes victory would be a major upset but it's far from clear if Johnson is heading for a surprise defeat.

Mike Lee

Senator Mike Lee seems on track for re-election in the Utah Senate race but he's in an unusual contest with independent candidate Evan McMullin that appears to be moving away from him. There is no Democrat in the race.

RealClearPolitics (RCP) recently moved the race from likely Republican to leans Republican—a decision touted by McMullin campaign manager Andrew Roberts, who described Lee as "one of the most vulnerable Republican incumbents in the country" in a campaign email sent to Newsweek.

Though Roberts argued that the new RCP rating "exemplifies just how much danger Lee is in," analysis from poll tracker FiveThirtyEight rates Lee as clearly favored to win with a 95 percent chance of victory compared to just a 5 percent chance for McMullin.

A Hill Research Consultants poll conducted for the Put Utah First super PAC from October 8 to 11 among 500 likely voters found McMullin leading with 49 percent to the senator's 43 percent but that appears to be an outlier.

A Dan Jones & Associates poll conducted from October 3 to 6 among 773 likely voters for Deseret News and the University of Utah Hinckley Institute of Politics showed Lee with a five-point lead—enjoying 42 percent support to McMullin's 37 percent.

There is apparent concern among Republicans about McMullin's chances and Lee previously appealed to Senator Mitt Romney, Utah's other GOP senator, for support.

Romney has been absent from the campaign trail thus far, however.