Four Reasons Why the Republicans Are Going Into Midterms Strong

The Republican Party is in good shape to retake control of the House and Senate in next week's midterm elections as President Joe Biden and the Democratic Party struggle to win over voters in key areas, according to a poll.

The Gallup survey, published Tuesday, shows that Biden's below-water approval ratings, disapproval of the Democratic-controlled Congress, concerns about the economy and a significant dissatisfaction with how "things are going" in the U.S. point toward major congressional victories for the GOP on November 8.

While historically the party in the White House suffers seat losses in the presidency's first midterm elections, Gallup pollsters said the Democrats are "especially vulnerable" this November because the national mood is "as bad, if not worse," than it has been in any recent midterms year.

Ahead of next week's elections, Biden's approval rating is at 40 percent, the second lowest figure for a president ahead of the midterms in nearly 50 years.

Only George W. Bush (38 percent) had a lower approval rating ahead of the Republican's second midterm elections, in 2006, in that time frame. Harry Truman was at 33 percent and 39 percent in 1946 and 1950, respectively.

Gallup noted that an incumbent president's party has always lost seats in the midterms when his approval rating was below 50 percent, averaging 37 seat losses since 1946.

The Gallup poll also shows a new low for voter satisfaction with the way things are in the country before the midterms, with just 17 percent of respondents saying they are satisfied. This figure is 5 percentage points lower than the previous record low, 22 percent in 2010, during Barack Obama's administration.

In that year's midterms, the Democrats lost 63 congressional seats.

Elsewhere, voters' concerns about the economy—a key campaign issue for the GOP—could spell serious trouble for the Democrats on November 8.

Nearly half (49 percent) of respondents in the Gallup poll described the economy's condition as poor, with just 14 percent describing it as excellent or good. Thirty-seven percent said it's "fair."

That 35-point difference between positive and negative evaluations of the economy is the largest gap recorded by Gallup. There was a 31-point margin in 2010, two years after the 2008 financial crisis.

Gallup's Jeffrey Jones and Lydia Saad wrote about the poll's results, saying: "Economic ratings tend to be less strongly related to midterm election outcomes than other mood indicators are, though views of the economy certainly influence how Americans rate the job that political leaders are doing and whether they are satisfied with the way things are going in the country."

They continued: "Generally positive evaluations of the economy in 1994, 2006 and 2018 were not enough to overcome weak job approval ratings for Presidents Clinton, Bush and Trump, respectively—as well as Congress' low approval ratings those years—suggesting political leaders were being evaluated on factors besides the economy.

"However, Biden's weak job approval today is in line with Americans' dim view of the economy, perhaps tethering his party's chances this election to the issue more than usual," Jones and Saad said.

But it's not just Biden who is facing a referendum next week. So is his party.

Just 1 in 5 (21 percent) Americans approve of the job Congress, under Democratic control, is doing. This figure was about the same during the previous four midterm elections, under Donald Trump and Obama.

In 2014, despite recording a lower congressional approval figure of 20 percent and with the GOP in control of the House, the Democrats under Obama lost just 13 seats—and from a much weaker position than where they are currently, ahead of this month's midterms.

"It is clear that when congressional job approval is low, generally speaking, voters are more likely to hold the president's party accountable than the majority party in Congress," Jones and Saad said.

"In the nine recent midterm elections in which congressional job approval was at or lower than 35 percent, the president's party lost seats in all of those elections, including five in which his party also held the majority in Congress," they wrote.

Polling and political analysis website FiveThirtyEight gives the GOP an 83 percent chance of regaining control of the House on November 8 and a 51 percent chance of taking the Senate.