The One Race That Could Deprive Both Democrats and Republicans of the Senate

In about a week in Utah, independent challenger Evan McMullin will try to unseat incumbent Republican Senator Mike Lee in the traditionally red state—the only Senate race in the country where Democrats are standing aside.

If McMullin, a former CIA agent who ran for president against Donald Trump in 2016, were to be successful in defeating the Republican incumbent, this could lead to an exceptional scenario where neither the GOP nor the Democratic Party has control of the Senate.

A poll conducted in early October by Deseret News and the Hinckley Institute of Politics found that 41 percent of Utahns would have voted for Lee and 37 percent would have backed McMullin if the election were held on that day, showing the two candidates were locked in a close battle for the state's Senate seat.

But as the midterms approach, Lee appears to have gathered ground in Utah, with the latest polling from FiveThirtyEight giving McMullin only a 4-in-100 chance of winning the race, while Lee has a 96-in-100 chance of victory.

"Evan McMullin is unlikely to defeat Republican incumbent Mike Lee," Jonathan Parker, senior lecturer in American Studies at Keele University in the U.K., told Newsweek, agreeing with the most recent polling.

"The latest poll out of Utah from Emerson College puts Lee up by 10 points, and polls generally appear to be moving to the Republicans' favor as the campaign ends. While McMullin is an independent, he will be relying on Democratic voters to win. Fewer of those mean his final tally will be going down."

Julie Norman, associate professor in politics and international relations at the University College London (UCL) and co-director at the Centre on US Politics (CUSP), agreed.

"Despite ample levels of support for an independent candidate, Evan McMullin is unlikely to unseat Mike Lee in Utah. Lee has maintained an average [8-point] lead in the polls, including the support of over 70 percent of Republican voters which will likely be enough to carry him to victory," she told Newsweek.

But political scientists love to entertain "crazy hypotheticals" such as McMullin winning the Utah Senate race, said Parker.

"If McMullin wins then he could quite easily be the swing vote in the Senate. Right now it is a toss-up whether the Democrats can hold onto 50 seats (technically a tie, but a majority with the Vice President breaking tie votes)," he said.

"The Republicans fielded some flawed candidates associated with Donald Trump, and the Democrats were hoping to capitalize on this vulnerability. For example, key states such as Georgia and Pennsylvania are tight mainly because of problems with the two Republican candidates (and the Democrat in Pennsylvania having a stroke). However, the movement of public opinion towards the Republicans at the very end might overcome this disadvantage."

A victory by an independent in the Senate race, although unlikely at the moment for McMullin, wouldn't be unprecedented—and in the case of the Utah candidate, it would be a wild card for Democrats and Republicans alike.

"If McMullin pulls out a win, it wouldn't be the first time that there is an independent in the Senate," said Norman.

"At present, both Bernie Sanders (of Vermont) and Angus King (of Maine) are political independents, but typically caucus with the Democrats and are generally relied upon in their vote counts. McMullin, however, has stated that he would maintain his independence and not caucus with either side, meaning that both parties would need to court his support for key votes."

If Democrats win 49 Senate seats and Republicans 50, as suggested by polls, and then McMullin wins the remaining seat as an independent, neither the Democratic Party nor the GOP would have control of the Senate.

"If McMullin were the 50th vote, it is unclear what would happen," said Parker.

Talking on Tucker Carlson Tonight earlier this month, Lee described McMullin as a "closeted Democrat." However, McMullin has insisted he does not side with any party.

"He has stated he would not associate himself with either party, but the bigger question is how he would vote. There is another independent, technically—Angus King from Maine is an independent, though he used to be a Democrat and mainly votes with that party," said Parker.

"McMullin was a Republican until 2016, and he would have to decide how to vote on each measure. Each budget, each piece of legislation, each court nominee would be reliant on his vote to go forward. He would have a lot of influence if we were willing to bargain, but it is unclear what he would do in this situation.

"Swing-vote Democrats such as Senators Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona and Joe Manchin of West Virginia have used their position to extract major concessions for their states in the Inflation Reduction Act. McMullin could do the same for Utah if he were willing to bargain on particular issues."

Newsweek reached out to the Lee and McMullin campaigns for comment.