Here's Why Putin Losing Kherson Would Devastate His War Effort

If Ukrainian forces are able to retake the southern city of Kherson, it could have significant political and military ramifications for Russian President Vladimir Putin's war effort, according to experts.

Kherson, the administrative center of the southern Kherson region, was one of the first major cities to fall under Russian control after Putin launched his invasion on February 24. More than seven months later, Ukrainian forces are now closing in on the city, leading to anticipation that Russia will soon be driven out.

The city of Kherson has been strategically important for Russia for several reasons, Dan Soller, a former U.S. Army intelligence colonel, told Newsweek. Among those reasons, according to Soller, is that the city provided a way to get across the Dnieper River.

"You can't think of the city completely isolated from the rest of the oblast," he said. "The oblast is separated by the river, meaning that it's on both sides of the river. It is essentially the biggest landmass on the northwest side of Crimea. So, it is actually the gateway to Crimea and also to the Zaporizhzhia Oblast."

Crimea has been annexed and occupied by Russia since 2014, but Ukraine has vowed to reclaim the peninsula in the war. It is "super important" for the Ukrainians to stop Russians from traversing across the Dnieper River to the north or its west bank, Soller added. Now, the Ukrainians have a goal of securing Kherson because it's the capital of the region, and also because they want to use the oblast and city "as a launching pad to attack south to essentially secure the passages into Crimea."

While capturing Kherson is important, it may also be a supporting effort for capturing something that Soller believes is even more important: the Nova Kakhovka dam on the Dnieper River.

"The dam is super critical for them. Obviously, they want it because it's a hydroelectric dam. It provides energy and resources for that part of Ukraine...They want to secure the dam and then use that as a crossing point," he said, outlining ways in which Ukraine can then cut off any remaining Russians in Kherson and push further south.

"I think it would be devastating for the Russian effort in the south, but I don't think it stops it because they could still defend themselves in the Perekop Isthmus to prevent the Ukrainians from attacking into Crimea," Soller continued. "But I do think that it's just a matter of time before the Ukrainians are going to be able to secure basically all of southern Kherson Oblast and the Russians will be forced to evacuate and defend either in Crimea or Melitopol."

Jonathan Katz, director of Democracy Initiatives and a senior fellow with the German Marshall Fund, told Newsweek that losing the city of Kherson could have a "huge" political impact on Putin himself.

"We've already seen Russians who are concerned even much more publicly about the war itself and the outcome of it," Katz said. "Of course, Mr. Putin said that he would take Ukraine in a three day period as part of this operation. And Kherson is one of the biggest cities taken by Russia, so a loss there would dramatically impact his ability to argue that this war is being conducted in a successful way."

Losing Kherson may also raise alarm bells about additional mobilization in Russia, spurring more residents to try to flee as a result, while the Russian leader could be "weakened in Moscow."

"And more importantly, there's likely to be a tremendous loss of Russian life and equipment based on what we've seen in other already-liberated areas of Ukraine. So it is a bad scene for Mr. Putin because he's losing this war," Katz added.

After Putin announced a partial mobilization last month, 370,000 citizens left Russia in a two-week period. For Ukraine, which has been relying on foreign support and supplies in its fight against Moscow, taking Kherson back could be a political victory.

"It highlights again that Ukrainians are capable of doing these extraordinary things against all odds," Katz said.

He also added that he believes "the whole world and particularly Ukraine's partners are looking right now at what's taking place" around the city, and that Ukrainians need continued "macroeconomic support and humanitarian support and infrastructure support" to get through the upcoming winter.

"[Kherson is] so significantly important for Ukrainians. But also I think Ukrainians are quite sober about what lies ahead, as are their allies and partners," Katz said.