How Midterms 2022 Polls Look With Two Weeks to Go

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Giulia Carbonaro is a Newsweek reporter based in London, U.K. Her focus is on the U.S. economy, housing market, property insurance market, local and national politics. She has previously extensively covered U.S. and European politics. Giulia joined Newsweek in 2022 from CGTN Europe and had previously worked at the European Central Bank. She is a graduate in Broadcast Journalism from Nottingham Trent University and holds a Bachelor's degree in Politics and International Relations from Università degli Studi di Cagliari, Italy. She speaks English, Italian, and a little French and Spanish. You can get in touch with Giulia by emailing: g.carbonaro@newsweek.com.

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The November midterms are two weeks away, and polls are pointing to Republicans taking a majority in the House and Democrats barely keeping their majority in the Senate.

According to the election polling website FiveThirtyEight, Republicans currently have an 80 in 100 chance of taking the House, while the Democrats only have a 20 in 100 chance. This prediction, updated as of October 17, shows a comeback for the GOP, whose odds to win the Senate had decreased after the Supreme Court voted to overturn Roe v. Wade in June.

Even at its lowest, the GOP still had a 68 in 100 chance of winning the House while the Democrats had a 32 in 100 chance at their best, according to FiveThirtyEight.

Now, two weeks from the midterms, Republicans have roughly a 3-in-4 chance of taking control of the chamber.

"It presents a chance for the Republicans [...] to have control over the writing of legislation and budgets," Professor Jonathan Parker, senior lecturer in U.S. Politics at Keele University, U.K., previously told Newsweek.

House in Washington, D.C.
Lawmakers depart from the U.S. Capitol Building on September 30, 2022 in Washington, D.C. Latest polls show that Republicans are favored to win the House while Democrats are slightly favored to take the Senate. Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images

"Biden would have to use his veto power, a very blunt instrument, as his only leverage over Congress. It also means if they can stop judicial appointments, particularly any Supreme Court vacancies, in the hopes of retaking the presidency in 2024. This will be a huge obstacle to the Biden presidency accomplishing any further lasting policy changes. The stakes are high for both sides, but the Democrats have much more to lose if they fail."

Under these circumstances, keeping control of the Senate is of fundamental importance for the Democratic party, said Parker.

"Control of the Senate is absolutely crucial for the Biden presidency as well as the longer-term prospects for the Democratic Party," he said.

"President Biden needs the approval of the Senate for all major political appointments to his administration and, most importantly, to appoint any federal judges to the district, appellate, and Supreme Court. The biggest legacy of the Trump administration was the large number of judges he appointed, roughly equal to both terms of the Obama administration. The Democrats really need Biden to be able to appoint judges to counter this shift, but that will largely come to an end if the Democrats don't control the Senate."

There are 14 Democratic seats and 21 Republican seats on the Senate ballot in November. The Senate would shift to the GOP if Republican nominees around the country manage to win 26 of the 35 total races.

Back in early June, Republicans had a 60 in 100 chance of winning the Senate, but the likelihood of a GOP victory steadily dropped through the summer following the Supreme Court's overturning of Roe v. Wade. On September 20, Republicans had a 29 in 100 chance of taking the Senate, while Democrats had a 71 in 100 chance.

The distance between the two parties was still significant until mid-October but quickly closed between October 15 and October 23, though the Democratic party maintains a small lead.

According to FiveThirtyEight's latest poll, Democrats now have a 2-in-3 chance of holding onto the Senate and could even pick up enough seats to eliminate the filibuster. But the Democrats' advantage over Republicans is small, and the results of the Senate races in battleground states like Pennsylvania, Nevada and Georgia are likely to ultimately decide who will take the Senate.

Nevada is expected to go from Democrats to Republicans with Adam Paul Laxalt likely to narrowly defeat Catherine Cortez Masto, while Pennsylvania is widely forecast to move from Republicans to Democrats with John Fetterman expected to defeat Republican Mehmet Oz.

"There will be an entirely new dynamic if the power in the House is in the hands of a Republican majority under Representative Kevin McCarthy [of California], as is very likely, and the Senate passes into the control of Senator Mitch McConnell [of Kentucky]," Professor Christopher Phelps, historian of modern American political and intellectual life at the University of Nottingham in the U.K., told Newsweek.

"We saw that movie already, under Obama. The Republican strategy will be to obstruct Biden's legislative agenda in order to build dissatisfaction toward the 2024 presidential race."

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About the writer

Giulia Carbonaro is a Newsweek reporter based in London, U.K. Her focus is on the U.S. economy, housing market, property insurance market, local and national politics. She has previously extensively covered U.S. and European politics. Giulia joined Newsweek in 2022 from CGTN Europe and had previously worked at the European Central Bank. She is a graduate in Broadcast Journalism from Nottingham Trent University and holds a Bachelor's degree in Politics and International Relations from Università degli Studi di Cagliari, Italy. She speaks English, Italian, and a little French and Spanish. You can get in touch with Giulia by emailing: g.carbonaro@newsweek.com.

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Giulia Carbonaro is a Newsweek reporter based in London, U.K. Her focus is on the U.S. economy, housing market, property ... Read more