Hurricane Idalia Spaghetti Models Show Rare Phenomenon

Hurricane Idalia's forecast track may take the storm down a rare path.

Winds have continued to worsen as the storm passes Cuba, according to an advisory from the National Hurricane Center. Forecasts anticipate the storm will strengthen into a major hurricane—with winds stronger than 111 mph—by the time it slams into Florida on Wednesday.

Current forecasts anticipate that Idalia will move through Florida on Wednesday and exit the state that night into Thursday morning. Meteorologists expect the storm to continue northeastward, affecting southeastern parts of Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina before entering the Atlantic.

However, some spaghetti models show the storm curling back once it hits the ocean and approaching Florida before hitting the state a second time on the eastern coast. Spaghetti models are computer models illustrating potential storm paths.

It's not unheard-of for hurricanes to make loops. Hurricane Jeanne and Hurricane Ivan both looped in 2004, according to NBC News. Hurricane Ginger looped twice in 1971.

However, it's much rarer for a hurricane to loop and then hit a state a second time. In 1994, Hurricane Gordon made landfall on Florida's west coast as a tropical storm before exiting the state. It then looped around in the Atlantic and hit the state again, on the east coast. In 2004, Hurricane Frances hit Florida's east coast, moved through the state, entered the Gulf of Mexico and curved northward to hit the Florida Panhandle.

AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Alan Reppert told Newsweek that although it's uncommon, a storm looping around and hitting a state again can happen, especially if a storm strikes in the Gulf and then comes back around to the southeastern coastline.

In Hurricane Idalia's case, high pressure building to the north could cause the storm to stay south in the Atlantic once it exits Florida. The high pressure could steer the storm to the southwest until it hits Florida again.

"It's not the most likely track, but it is a track that's possible," Reppert said.

Most forecast tracks show Idalia exiting Florida and fizzling out in the Atlantic.

As of Tuesday afternoon, Idalia's wind speeds had increased to 90 miles per hour, making it a Category 1 hurricane. Forecasts expect the hurricane to become a Category 3 by the time it makes landfall, but the storm could land as a Category 4. Idalia is expected to bring a life-threatening storm surge of up to 12 feet in some parts of Florida's west coast.

State officials have urged Floridians to prepare for the hurricane. Some gas stations were running dry Tuesday morning as residents stocked up on fuel or planned to evacuate.