J.D. Vance's Chances vs. Tim Ryan as Ohio Senate Race Hangs on Knife-Edge

With November 8 looming, the race to become Ohio's next senator remains tight between Democratic candidate Tim Ryan and Republican J.D. Vance, but who will come out on top?

The latest polling average from FiveThirtyEight shows that, as of Friday, Vance holds a three-point lead, with 47.4 percent support to Ryan's 44.3 percent.

The recent unreliability of public polls in Ohio has made it a tough state to predict, but polls typically underrepresent GOP support, meaning Vance's win in a state that former President Donald Trump carried by more than eight points in 2020 could be significantly larger than forecast.

Political scientist David Niven, an associate professor at the University of Cincinnati, told Newsweek that, at this stage, Vance looked the most likely winner of Tuesday's election.

He said: "It is hard to turn the campaign ship around in the final days. Barring a major gaffe or scandal, the last few days are filled trying to charge up your base voters and make sure they cast ballots."

"In the last few election cycles, polls have underestimated Republican support in Ohio," he said.

"With the exception of Senator Sherrod Brown, Democrats are winless in Ohio is every statewide partisan race since 2014.

"Ohio is whiter than the nation, older than the nation, less educated than the nation. That combination is a sweet spot for Trumpy Republicans, and a tough slog for any Democrat.

"The fact that this has been a competitive race is a tribute to the strength of Tim Ryan's campaign and the inability of JD Vance to break through."

Niven also highlighted how the pair have run their campaigns differently while both being focussed on the country's financial difficulties.

He said: "Both candidates have put the economy at the center of their campaigns. Ryan portrays Vance as a venture capitalist who has sold out American opportunity to China. Vance portrays Ryan as a yes-man for President Biden's economic policies."

Ohio State University political science Professor Paul Beck also spoke to Newsweek and agreed with some of Niven's conclusions. He also said the race currently favors Vance to win.

"All we have to go by are the polls, which show that the election is too close to call—well within their sampling error," he said.

"Two things to bear in mind about that result: First, polls in the past have underestimated the Republican vote. Maybe they have corrected for that by adjusting their weighting, but we will see. Second, Trump won Ohio by 8% in 2016 and 2020, which creates quite a mountain for Ryan to climb.

"If he whittles down that GOP margin, it will be quite an accomplishment, even if it is not enough to win. So, the odds in this tight race favor Vance."

Beck also commented on how the discussion around abortions in the state will play a role in how people vote.

"Big difference between them has been on the abortion issue, with Ryan favoring the status quo under Roe v. Wade, Vance favoring anti-abortion stances without exceptions. They are similar on trade issues."

Beck also reflected on how much money the two candidates were able to raise on their campaign and how they differed.

"Campaign spending seems about even between Vance and Ryan, with both easily spending enough to get their message out and the two of them spending so much that voters may be turned off by the barrage of TV ads," he said.

"Interestingly, the money shows that Vance is the candidate of outside money, from rich donors giving largely dark money and the NRSC. Ryan has raised much more money from small donors in Ohio. Money given to his campaign fund gets the best bang for the buck in ad rates, whereas the PAC money Vance has raised pays the most for ads, with no discount for candidates."

In the first 19 days of October, Ryan raised $9 million, bringing his campaign total to more than $48 million over the course of this election cycle—breaking the state record previously held by incumbent Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown, who raised $29.7 million for his 2018 re-election campaign.

On the other hand, Vance has raised a quarter of what Ryan's campaign has accomplished with $12.7 million throughout the cycle, although national Republicans, like former President Donald Trump and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, have swooped in to pour tens of millions into Vance's campaign.

Update 11/4/22, 1:25 p.m. ET: This article was updated to add a polling graphic.