Kamala Harris Leads Trump in 2 Critical Swing States—New Poll

Vice President Kamala Harris is up in new polling in the critical swing states of Michigan and Pennsylvania.

The easiest path to 270 electoral votes for Harris runs through Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, but prominent polling analyst Nate Silver, the founder of ABC's FiveThirtyEight and now the Silver Bulletin Substack, is calling this "about the closest election that we've seen" on his podcast Risky Business.

While Harris could still potentially pull off a victory without Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, most analysts see these states as key bellwethers of her chances to win.

New polling released Thursday by UMass Lowell Center for Public Opinion and YouGov shows Harris leading in both Pennsylvania and Michigan, a good sign for the Democrat, although the margins remain close. Here's a closer look at the data.

New Michigan Poll

The new polling shows Harris with a five-point lead over former President Donald Trump in Michigan. The results released are from an online-based survey conducted between September 11 and 19.

"For a swing state, this margin is good news for the vice president's campaign," Rodrigo Castro Cornejo, UMass Lowell political science assistant professor and Center for Public Opinion associate director, said in an email to Newsweek.

The poll showed indecisive voters in Michigan were in the "low single digits for supports of both candidates," according to Castro Cornejo. He said that the numbers are unlikely to fluctuate much within the state between now and Election Day.

"The Trump campaign has a negative favorability in Michigan that needs to be overcome if they want to remain competitive in the state," Castro Cornejo said.

Comparatively, Silver's election model shows Harris ahead in Michigan with 49.1 percent of the vote to Trump's 46.8 percent. Harris has gained a margin over the past week of .3 points. However, Trump had a greater change over the past month with one point.

Trump remains unpopular among likely voters, while Harris' perception has evened out, according to the UMass/YouGov poll. Trump is viewed as favorable by 41 percent of respondents, and 56 percent view him unfavorably. While 47 percent of respondents have a favorable view of Harris, and 47 percent say they view her unfavorably.

New Pennsylvania Poll

The UMass/YouGov also polled likely voters in Pennsylvania, where it was shown that Harris and Trump continue to face a close race at 48 percent and 46 percent respectively. Other candidates on the ballot did not receive more than one percent of the support from respondents in Pennsylvania. Another four percent remain undecided.

"The presidential race remains very close in Pennsylvania with the coming weeks a crucial time for both campaigns," Castro Cornejo said. "As can be expected in a highly competitive race with few undecided voters, get-out-the-vote strategies will become increasingly important to mobilize supporters and ensure they go to the polls on Election Day."

According to the Silver Bulletin, Pennsylvania has a 33 percent chance of tipping the election this year. Silver said on his podcast Thursday that Harris' lead is a bit more than one point in Pennsylvania, which "is the most important tipping point state." Polls in seven swing states are within 2.5 points.

The Silver Bulletin's aggregate polling for Pennsylvania shows Harris ahead with 48.8 percent of the vote, compared to Trump's 47.3 percent. Since last week, Harris has gained .2 points, but Trump has gained .4 from the past month.

"If you had the election today, Harris is ahead in states totaling 276 electoral votes," Silver said on his podcast Risky Business. He added that this is if the Democratic nominee "holds the blue wall states of Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania plus Nevada."

Without Nevada, Harris would be at 270, one vote above the number of electoral votes needed to win the election. Overall, Harris has gained about one percent of votes since the presidential debate against Trump, he said.

"Which might not seem like a big deal but it actually is," Silver said, "given that the two elections came down to one point or so."

What National Polling Shows

The Silver Bulletin's aggregate polling shows Harris winning nationally with 49 percent of the vote and Trump receiving 46.2 percent.

The FiveThirtyEight national polls have Harris at 48.5 percent of the vote. This is a 2.7-point lead ahead of Trump, who is shown on September 26 as receiving 45.8 percent of the vote.

RealClearPolitics' polling on September 26 shows polling results from September 11 to 25 suggesting Harris receives a two-point lead, with 49.1 percent of the vote and Trump receiving 47.1 percent.

The prediction currently has Harris at a 75.2 percent chance of winning the overall popular vote. There is a 20.3 percent chance she wins the popular vote but loses the Electoral College.

"Steady as she goes," Silver posted to X, formerly known as Twitter.

However, national aggregators essentially offer a general "pulse check" on the popular vote and do not weigh or consider Electoral College votes, which determine the election. The Oval Office is won by whichever candidate gets 270 Electoral College votes, not whether they win the popular vote. In 2016, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton won the popular vote but lost the Electoral College, so Trump won the election.