Kamala Harris Favored to Win 4 Critical Swing States—Nate Silver's Model

Vice President Kamala Harris is favored to win four critical swing states against former President Donald Trump, according to Nate Silver's presidential model.

With the presidential election a month-and-a-half away, Harris, the Democratic nominee, has over a 50 percent chance of winning Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Nevada, Silver currently predicts.

Swing state polls are more likely to give a better glimpse into what November's election results will look like since national polls essentially show the popular vote, which does not guarantee a win. Since U.S. presidents are chosen based on the Electoral College system, Harris or Trump, the GOP's nominee, will need the help of swing states, or states in which the electorate is more mixed in terms of which political party they voted for in the past, to get to at least 270 electoral votes, which is needed to win the presidency.

The Harris campaign has declined to comment on this article when contacted by Newsweek on Sunday morning. Newsweek also reached out to the Trump campaign via email for comment.

Michigan

The Democratic nominee has a 63 percent chance of winning Michigan, with a tipping-point probability of 14 percent, according to Silver's numbers as of Saturday. Michigan has 15 electoral votes.

A tipping-point probability is the probability that winning a state will give the Electoral College winner their 270th electoral vote.

Silver is considered one of the leading polling analysts in the U.S. He was the founder of ABC News' poll aggregator FiveThirtyEight but is no longer affiliated with either of them.

According to Silver's calculated polling averages for the two nominees, Harris leads the former president in Michigan by 2.4 points (49.3 to 46.9 percent) as of Saturday. Harris is slightly more ahead of Trump in FiveThirtyEight's polling average in Michigan, which has Harris at 48.6 percent of the vote and Trump at 45.9 percent (a difference of 2.7 points), according to Saturday's numbers.

Silver said that Michigan is "the one swing state you could probably say is leaning Harris rather than a pure toss-up" in a Substack post from Saturday.

Pennsylvania

In Pennsylvania, Harris has a win probability of 57 percent and a tipping-point probability of 32 percent. Pennsylvania has 19 electoral votes.

The vice president has 48.9 percent of the vote in Pennsylvania compared to Trump's 47.4 percent, which is a 1.5-point lead, according to Silver's numbers. Meanwhile, FiveThirtyEight has Harris ahead of Trump by 1.4 points (48.2 to 46.8 percent).

Silver said it's more likely that Pennsylvania "will be slightly Republican-leaning, as it was in the prior two elections" in his recent Substack post.

Wisconsin

Harris has a 56 percent chance of winning Wisconsin and the state's tipping-point probability for her is 16 percent. Wisconsin has 10 electoral votes.

An average of the polls shows Harris 1.8 points ahead of Trump in the state (49.4 to 47.6 percent), according to Silver. Harris is doing ever-so-slightly worse in Wisconsin in FiveThirtyEight's polling average where she is leading Trump by 1.7 points (48.4 to 46.7 percent).

However, Silver said in his Substack post that "the Badger State might worry me if I were Harris" given the "massive polling errors underestimating Trump in 2016 and 2020." Silver also pointed out that Wisconsin is more white and rural than Pennsylvania or Michigan, meaning "it will be the frontline for any Trump overperformance among the white working class."

Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin have been considered vital to a Democratic victory in the Electoral College.

Nevada

Harris is also favored to win Nevada by a probability of 53 percent. The state's tipping-point probability is 2 percent for the Democratic nominee. Nevada has 6 electoral votes.

In Silver's polling averages, Harris leads Trump by 1.1 points (48.3 to 47.2 percent). Meanwhile, Harris is ahead of the Republican nominee 47.3 to 46.7 percent in Nevada, according to FiveThirtyEight's averages.

Speaking of Nevada, Silver said in his Substack post, "[President Joe] Biden was polling poorly there, but Harris has drawn the race back to even."

What Do Other Swing States Show?

Harris' chances of winning Georgia and Arizona are both at 36 percent, with a tipping-point probability of 9 and 6 percent, respectively, according to Silver's Substack post.

In North Carolina and Florida—both states Trump won in 2016 and 2020—Harris had a win probability of 39 and 17 percent, respectively. The vice president's tipping-point probability was 11 percent in North Carolina and 2 percent in Florida.

National Polling Averages

Harris is leading Trump by 2.7 points (49 to 46.3 percent), according to Silver's national polling averages on Saturday. Meanwhile, FiveThirtyEight's national polling averages have Harris 2.8 points ahead of Trump (48.3 to 45.6 percent) as of Saturday.

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Update 9/22/24, 5:05 p.m. ET: This article has been updated with additional information.