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Of all the tight races Republicans have been in this year, few expected conservative firebrand Lauren Boebert's to be the one headed for a recount. But the congresswoman's narrow lead over Democratic challenger Adam Frisch falls within Colorado's 0.5 percent threshold, which means the 3rd District will likely hold one.
The good news for the GOP is that Boebert is on track to hold the advantage on the initial tally, and because recounts rarely change the outcome of an election, Republicans are poised to keep the seat.
The competitiveness of Boebert's district shocked many. The congresswoman was widely projected to win reelection in the largely red-leaning district, but early vote counts showed Frisch with the lead, and even when Boebert overtook her opponent, the margin remained slim.
As of Wednesday, Boebert was ahead by 0.35 percent, but as the final ballots were tallied, Frisch cut her narrow lead in half. With nearly all the votes counted, Boebert is only ahead by 0.16 percentage points or 551 votes.
In Colorado, a mandatory recount is required if the margin of votes between the top two candidates is 0.5 percent or below. Although recounts are not uncommon, especially for state and local candidates, they rarely upset the results of an election.
Because there are still more than 500 votes between Boebert and Frisch, it is unlikely that Frisch will flip the district blue, Seth Masket, the director of the University of Denver's Center on American Politics, told Newsweek.
"It's rare that recounts shift more than a few dozen votes, maybe a few hundred at the outside," Masket said.
A 2020 study conducted by the non-partisan group Fair Vote found that although 31 statewide recounts occurred between 2000 and 2019, and 22 of those cases resulted in a changed victory margin, only three of the 31 recounts changed the outcome of those elections. Those reversals took place in a 2004 governor's race in Washington, a 2006 state auditor's race in Vermont, and a 2008 Senate race in Minnesota.
"Recounts in statewide elections did not reverse outcomes of elections that did not have an exceptionally close margin in the initial count," the study concluded.
Although the report did not analyze House races, its findings suggest that there is a small probability that a recount will give Frisch enough votes to close the gap.
Even more so, recounts have typically expanded the initial victory margin than reduced it, Fair Vote said. Thus, Boebert's win could end up being even greater.
Although the race remains undecided at this time, Boebert has already claimed victory, citing the rarity in which recounts alter the outcome of an election.
In a Friday statement shared with Newsweek, a spokesperson for the congresswoman said recounts in Colorado historically change the outcome "very little."
"The last recount in Colorado was for a statewide election, not just congressional, and only changed the outcome by 13 votes," Boebert's spokesperson said. "When all legal ballots are counted and the race is certified on or before December 6th, Congresswoman Boebert will win her race."
On Thursday night, the incumbent Republican celebrated on Twitter, writing "We won!" alongside a video message that reassured voters that despite the "automatic recount," they could be "certain" she will return to Congress "come January."
About the writer
Katherine Fung is a Newsweek senior reporter based in New York City. She has covered U.S. politics and culture extensively. ... Read more