Lee Zeldin on the Verge of Pulling Off Colossal Coup in New York

Lee Zeldin is continuing to see momentum in his campaign to unseat New York Governor Kathy Hochul in next month's election, as yet another poll shows the Republican cutting dramatically into the Democrat's lead.

Hochul is ahead by 6 percentage points, 47 percent to 41 percent, according to a SurveyUSA poll that was done for TV stations WHEC and WNYT and released Thursday. But Zeldin has gained serious ground against Hochul since a SurveyUSA/WNYT poll in August, in which the Donald Trump–endorsed candidate was 24 points behind Hochul (55 percent to 31 percent).

Following a number of polls suggesting that the race is tightening, Real Clear Politics declared in mid-October that the midterm election is a "toss-up." Zeldin has made tackling crime in New York state a key part of his campaign. In July, he was assaulted by a man who apparently tried to stab him during a campaign speech, but the candidate managed to escape injury.

When the new polling results are broken down further, Zeldin has significantly chipped away at Hochul's lead when those who said they were certain to vote in the election were asked whom they would vote for.

In August, 58 percent of those taking part in the survey who were certain to vote said they would support Hochul, compared with 33 percent who said they would vote for Zeldin.

In the latest poll, Hochul's lead among certain voters had nearly disappeared, with the governor narrowly ahead of her Republican rival, 46 percent to 44 percent.

According to the October SurveyUSA poll, New Yorkers say crime is the second most important issue when deciding who they will vote for in the gubernatorial race, with inflation the most important and abortion coming in third.

On October 9, Zeldin said two teenagers were shot outside his Long Island home while his twin 16-year-old daughters were inside. Neither of his daughters was harmed in the incident, and the two 17-year-old victims suffered non-life-threatening injuries.

"Democrats are backing nationally and locally on a positive voter response to the overturning of abortion legalizing Roe v. Wade," Hank Sheinkopf, a Democratic strategist, told Newsweek.

"What voters are more concerned about generally is the economy and crime, which in their minds equal Biden. Kathy Hochul, even in Democrat-blue New York, is suffering from the sense that things are just out of control," he said.

While Hochul is still considered the favorite in her race to win reelection and has beaten Zeldin in all of the most recent opinion polls, the Republican may still see a surprise victory should public opinion continue to shift to his side.

In September, after a Trafalgar Group survey showed Hochul's lead over her rival had been reduced to just over 4 percentage points, Zeldin said in a statement that the poll "underscores our unprecedented momentum and Team Zeldin is NOT slowing down."

History suggests Zeldin still has work to do if he hopes to win in New York, a strongly blue state.

New Yorkers have chosen a Democratic governor in the past four elections. George Pataki, the governor from 1995 to 2006, is the only Republican to have held the position since the mid-1970s. The state has not voted for a GOP president since Ronald Reagan in 1984.

Even with Zeldin closing a polling gap, FiveThirtyEight still gives Hochul a nearly 8-point lead in its national poll average, which puts her at 50.1 percent and Zeldin at 42.5 percent.