Marjorie Taylor Greene's Chances of Losing Georgia Re-election

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Giulia Carbonaro is a Newsweek reporter based in London, U.K. Her focus is on the U.S. economy, housing market, property insurance market, local and national politics. She has previously extensively covered U.S. and European politics. Giulia joined Newsweek in 2022 from CGTN Europe and had previously worked at the European Central Bank. She is a graduate in Broadcast Journalism from Nottingham Trent University and holds a Bachelor's degree in Politics and International Relations from Università degli Studi di Cagliari, Italy. She speaks English, Italian, and a little French and Spanish. You can get in touch with Giulia by emailing: g.carbonaro@newsweek.com.

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Georgia Republican Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene is running for re-election for the state's 14th Congressional district and she is considered very likely to win.

Polling website FiveThirtyEight gives her a 99 in 100 chance of victory against Democratic challenger Marcus Flowers, a 47-year-old Black army veteran who said he believes in bipartisanship and bridge-building across the political spectrum.

Flowers has raised $15 million—more than any congressional candidate across the entire country—to defeat Greene, but he's been facing an uphill battle, as voters appear determined to stick with Greene, despite the congresswoman being notoriously controversial in her stances and statements.

Marjorie Taylor Greene
Marjorie Taylor Greene talks to reporters before former President Donald Trump speaks at a "Save America" rally in Warren, Michigan, on October 1, 2022. Greene is running for re-election in Georgia's 14th district on November... JEFF KOWALSKY/AFP via Getty Images

In the past few years, Greene has promoted several conspiracy theories, including Donald Trump's claims that the 2020 presidential election was rigged or stolen. She has also been accused of making racist, antisemitic, homophobic and Islamophobic comments, and she was once accused of kicking a Gen-Z activist who was standing in her way.

These kinds of incendiary comments, including embracing QAnon conspiracy theories, got Greene removed from her committee assignments in February 2021.

Most recently, Greene blamed Democrats for the attack on Paul Pelosi, the husband of Democratic Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi, at the Pelosi's San Francisco home last month.

"If Paul Pelosi was a 2A supporting gun owner he could have shot the man that was trying to kill him," Greene said on Twitter. "It's dangerous Democrat policies that led to Paul Pelosi being attacked."

But despite all of this, Greene—who's backed by Trump—seems set to keep hold of her seat in the House of Representatives, and her relevance within the GOP is arguably stronger now than it was a year ago, as Trump and MAGA Republicans still prove relevant to the right-wing electorate.

"What has changed is the balance of power in the Republican Party," Jonathan Parker, senior lecturer in American Studies at Keele University in the U.K., told Newsweek.

"They need her, her fundraising, and Trump's base. So, despite her extremist views, she is being courted by the likely new Republican House Speaker Kevin McCarthy. She will likely have even more influence after this election and openly pushes to punish President Biden (who she refers to as Hitler) as much as possible as payback for pursuing Trump over January 6th, possibly going so far as to impeach him without any plausible evidence of wrongdoing."

During the Republican primaries on March 24, Greene got 69.5 percent of the votes, while rival Jennifer Strahan trailed behind with 16.9 percent of the votes and other nominees remained under the 10 percent threshold.

Greene started the race with a clear advantage, as Georgia's House 14th district is considered among the top 10 most Republican congressional districts in the country, though it sits right at the bottom of that list. According to Ballotpedia, three in four people in the district are white, and three in four voted for Trump in 2020.

In 2020, she won the district's seat with 74.7 percent of the vote against her Democratic rival Kevin Van Ausdal, who unofficially withdrew from the race.

Online betting forecasters on New Zealand-based online prediction market PredictIn are currently giving the Georgia congresswoman a 96 percent chance of re-election.

"MTG has almost no chance of losing her seat," Parker said.

"She got 75 percent of the vote just two years ago. Lots of donors have supported her opponent, Marcus Flowers, in a forlorn attempt to unseat her - which has siphoned money away from other, more winnable seats (such as the Georgia Senate race, which will prove critical to Democrat fortunes).

"She has been consistently extreme and spreads conspiracy theories regularly. Senate minority leader, Mitch McConnell, called her views a 'cancer' on the party. But her extremist position made her a key Trump ally, and that has brought her prominence and influence."

Newsweek has reached out to Flowers and Greene for comment.

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About the writer

Giulia Carbonaro is a Newsweek reporter based in London, U.K. Her focus is on the U.S. economy, housing market, property insurance market, local and national politics. She has previously extensively covered U.S. and European politics. Giulia joined Newsweek in 2022 from CGTN Europe and had previously worked at the European Central Bank. She is a graduate in Broadcast Journalism from Nottingham Trent University and holds a Bachelor's degree in Politics and International Relations from Università degli Studi di Cagliari, Italy. She speaks English, Italian, and a little French and Spanish. You can get in touch with Giulia by emailing: g.carbonaro@newsweek.com.

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Giulia Carbonaro is a Newsweek reporter based in London, U.K. Her focus is on the U.S. economy, housing market, property ... Read more