NATO Can Thwart Secret Offensive in Ukraine, Ex-Russian Commander Warns

Former Russian military commander Igor Girkin warned on Tuesday that the NATO military alliance is capable of thwarting any "secret" Russian offensive in Ukraine.

Twitter user Dmitri, from War Translated, an independent project that translates materials about the war, shared Girkin's remarks, which he posted on his Telegram channel.

Girkin, also known as Igor Strelkov, is a Russian nationalist and prominent military blogger known for his role in the 2014 annexation of Crimea and the conflict in Ukraine's eastern Donbas region.

Since Putin launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, Girkin has been openly publishing commentary critical of Russia's military strategy and setbacks.

In scathing remarks on Tuesday, he criticized Andrey Gurulyov, a deputy in Russia's State Duma, for suggesting that if Russia's military is preparing for a new offensive, "no one will ever know about it."

The Russian politician told journalists on Tuesday that Russia would be able to keep details of a fresh offensive in Ukraine under the radar.

Girkin responded by calling Gurulyov a "fool" and suggested that a "secret" Russian offensive would be easily known about by Western intelligence.

"Retired Colonel-General Gurulev clearly demonstrates the general level of cretinism of our top generals, to whom he recently belonged," Girkin said on his Telegram channel.

"Probably, the general forgot (or maybe he never knew) that NATO has a large space group and effective modern air reconnaissance. And there is also radio interception and radio location. And the presence of brains in headquarters and analytical centers (Gurulev does not know for sure that this is the case—he did not encounter this in his service)," he wrote.

Girkin noted that the West and Ukraine were aware of a possible invasion by Russia before February 24 last year.

"Let me remind you that the enemy predicted the offensive of the Russian Armed Forces a year ago (and even posted information in the media) ahead of time and with an accuracy of several days...," he continued.

Girkin also said that in his circle, people believe Russia is stuck and has no way forward or back in the current situation.

"In one of the inner chats where I am present, literally today the question was discussed: 'what to do?'. And there, intelligent people came to the conclusion that in the current situation the Russian Federation is in complete 'Zugzwang'," he said, using a German chess term for a situation where any move a player makes will worsen their position.

"It is impossible to stand on the defensive, since this quickly worsens the strategic position of Russia, and it is impossible to attack since this risks with a quick military catastrophe—the combat effectiveness and morale of the army strongly reminiscent of that before the July offensive or Kerensky in 1917," he wrote, referring to the disastrous final Russian offensive of World War I.

"Well, as for the fact that the Kremlin will nevertheless go for cardinal personnel and other necessary reforms, as long as the situation at the front is relatively stable and there is a little time to implement them, there is no longer any talk...no one believes in this anymore."

More than 10 months into the war, Putin's military, despite its vast size, has struggled to achieve substantial goals in Ukraine. Throughout the fall and winter of 2022, Ukraine recaptured key areas that Russia seized in the early stages of the war.

Girkin also condemned Russia's military command last month.

"I have to state once again that our military command—according to the degree of stupid stubbornness with a complete inability to create—deserves comparison rather with representatives of Ovis aries [domestic sheep]—animals of the mammalian class, the order of artiodactyls of the polorogi family of the genus rams, than with representatives of primates (not to mention humans)," he wrote in a Telegram post.

Newsweek has contacted Russia's Foreign Ministry for comment.

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