Why a Bakhmut Breakthrough for Russia Appears Unlikely

Ukraine is ramping up its reinforcements in the city of Bakhmut, making a breakthrough for Russia in the hard-hit region appear increasingly unlikely more than 10 months into the war.

Britain's Ministry of Defence said on Tuesday that over the last 10 days, Ukraine has committed significant reinforcements to defend Bakhmut amid intensifying clashes in the town, which is located in Ukraine's eastern Donbas region.

In its daily assessment of the Ukraine war, the ministry noted that while infantry assaults by the Russian military and the Wagner Group increased in frequency in mid-December, these operations were "poorly supported."

And as Ukraine has ramped up its defense in the bloody battle for Bakhmut, the frequency of Russian assaults have likely reduced from the peak last month, the Defense Ministry assessed, noting that both Ukraine and Russia have suffered high casualties.

"Russian offensive operations in the area are now likely being conducted at only platoon or section level," the ministry concluded. "It is unlikely Russia will achieve a significant breakthrough near Bakhmut in the coming weeks."

Bakhmut is one of the most intense spots of fighting in the war, and Russian forces in the region are being led by members of a notorious mercenary unit, the Wagner Group, founded by Yevgeny Prigozhin, an ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Serhiy Haidai, Ukrainian governor of the partly Russian-occupied Luhansk region, said on his Telegram channel on December 26 that thousands of Russian troops have died in the battle for Bakhmut.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) quoted Prigozhin on Monday as saying that Ukrainian forces have heavily fortified the residential area around Bakhmut so there is a new line of defense "every 10 meters."

According to the U.S.-based think tank, Russian forces continued to conduct ground attacks near Bakhmut and in the Avdiivka area, around 60 miles south of Bakhmut, on January 1 and 2 "at a low rate of advance."

Meanwhile, a video of a Ukrainian soldier has circulated on social media describing how his forces have consistently held off Russian assaults on Bakhmut.

"Friends, this is what one of the districts of Bakhmut city looks like right now," the soldier said in the clip that was shared by Twitter user Dmitri, who is with WarTranslated, an independent project concerned with translating various materials about the war into English.

"Friends, regarding the operational situation on the morning of January 2, all attempted attacks on our operational area have been repelled, although they were rather large-scale in our sector of defense," the soldier said.

"They were coming like cockroaches, we had to bring over the ammo a few times," he continued.

"In short, regarding the Bakhmut conglomeration: defense line is standing and holding, don't worry, keep your nerves, each one is in their place doing their job," the Ukrainian solider added. "Bakhmut is Ukraine. It stood, is standing, and will continue standing."

Roman Kostenko, a Ukrainian commander, told Newsweek last month that Russia's grinding push for Bakhmut shows Moscow "overestimated" the strength of its forces.

"Despite all the difficulties we are holding on to it," said Kostenko, who is commanding a special forces unit. "This standoff over Bakhmut is really telling, because it shows how the Russians overestimated their own strength. The picture of an unstoppable force [President Vladimir Putin] tried to project at the start of the invasion has been overshadowed by the reality of a weak and unmotivated military."

"We see this in Bakhmut, where the Russians are throwing everything at us, are said to have a 9:1 advantage over our forces, and yet have been unable to take it," he said.

Newsweek reached out to Russia's Foreign Ministry for comment.

Do you have a tip on a world news story that Newsweek should be covering? Do you have a question about the Russia-Ukraine war? Let us know via worldnews@newsweek.com.