Ukrainian Forces Launching Bakhmut Counters as Russian Progress Slows: ISW

The bloody battle for Bakhmut is still ongoing even though progress by Russian forces is slowing, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) on Friday.

The U.S.-based think tank said that Russian troops have continued their offensive operations in the Avdiivka area, around 60 miles south of Bakhmut, which is located in the Donetsk oblast in Eastern Ukraine, "where the pace of Russian offensive operations may have slowed compared to previous days."

The ISW's daily update also added that the Ukrainian General Staff has said there were more settlements around the city that have become targets of Russian attacks. "This inflection may indicate that the pace of Russian attacks around Bakhmut is slowing," the ISW wrote.

This development may back the ISW's prior forecast that the Russian offensive there "may be culminating," meaning that an attacking military force can no longer continue its advance.

The ISW also referred to a Russian milblogger's claim that Russian troops had taken strongholds near Pidhorodne, around 3 miles north of the city.

Meanwhile, other Russian milbloggers also reported that Ukrainian troops had launched counterattacks to regain positions south and east of Bakhmut, the ISW said.

On December 24, the think tank said that the Wagner Group, whose mercenaries are fighting alongside Russian troops, had suffered heavy losses and likely "strained" Russian forces' operational capabilities in Bakhmut.

The city has been a focal point of the Russian offensive for several months, which Ukraine said has taken a heavy toll on Moscow's forces. Serhiy Haidai, governor of the Russian-occupied Luhansk region, said on Monday that thousands of Russian troops had died in the battle for the city.

The ISW's daily assessment comes as British defense officials warned there was a "realistic possibility" that Russian forces will launch long-range strikes on Ukraine over the New Year period.

The United Kingdom's Ministry of Defense (MOD) said on Saturday on Twitter that the strikes over the holiday period, which includes Orthodox Christmas, would be a move "to undermine the morale of the Ukrainian population."

Meanwhile, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said Saturday that victory for Russia over Ukraine was "inevitable" in a New Year's video message in which he admitted to a "difficult military-political situation."

Shoigu has been criticized by milbloggers for Moscow's failures in its invasion of Ukraine. However, he described the "selfless courage and heroism" of Russian troops fighting what he called "neo-Nazism and terrorism."

Kyiv and the West have rejected Russia's assertion that it is fighting "Nazis" in Ukraine, which is the pretext for Russian President Vladimir Putin's invasion of the Eastern European country that started in late February.

Newsweek has contacted the Russian defense ministry for comment.