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Senator Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) may be losing ground with voters despite the recent emergence of Democratic challenger Cal Cunningham's extramarital sexting scandal, according to a new poll.
A Monmouth University poll released Tuesday finds Cunningham with a 48 percent to 44 percent lead over Tillis among registered voters. In a scenario of likely voters participating in a high turnout election, Cunningham is ahead by 49 percent to 44 percent. The race is tighter in a low-turnout scenario, with likely voters favoring Cunningham by 48 percent to 47 percent.
The poll was conducted by telephone among 500 registered North Carolina voters between October 8 and October 11. Cunningham's lead is within the poll's margin of error of 4.4 percent.
A Monmouth poll released last month showed Cunningham with a slim 1 percent advantage over Tillis. The Democratic challenger's lead grew in spite of the October 1 revelation that Cunningham had sent amorous texts to a woman who is not his wife. Cunningham admitted that the texts were genuine and said that he had "hurt" is family, while refusing to drop out of the election.
Cunningham's favorability rating did plummet after the scandal erupted, falling from 34 percent last month to 25 percent this month, while those who viewed Cunningham as unfavorable grew from 22 percent to 33 percent. However, a 43 percent plurality of voters said they had "no opinion" on Cunningham's favorability and only 14 percent said that the scandal "disqualifies" him from holding office.
Tillis was diagnosed with COVID-19 one day after Cunningham's texts were revealed. The senator was one of several prominent Republican political figures to contract the virus after attending a White House event late last month announcing President Donald Trump's nominee for the U.S. Supreme Court, Amy Coney Barrett. Tillis said Tuesday that he had been medically cleared to leave isolation and would soon be attending this week's Senate confirmation hearings for Barrett.
Additional polls have also suggested that Cunningham is maintaining his lead despite the scandal. A Morning Consult poll released Tuesday found that 47 percent of likely voters preferred Cunningham, compared to 41 percent for Tillis. A SurveyUSA poll released Monday shows the Democrat enjoying a 10 percent lead over Tillis, growing from a 7 percent lead in last month's edition of the same poll.
The Tillis campaign pointed Newsweek to a tweet from Republican pollster Glen Bolger, who said Tuesday that the scandal was "taking a toll" on Cunningham and that he would "be releasing very encouraging data for" Tillis on Wednesday.
Tuesday's Monmouth poll showed similar results for the Democratic candidate in the presidential election, with nominee Joe Biden having a 49 percent to 46 percent edge over Trump among registered voters. Biden expanded his lead by 1 percent in a high turnout scenario of likely voters. A low turnout scenario mirrored the Tillis-Cunningham race, with Biden's lead shrinking to 1 percent.
Update 10/13, 6:43 p.m.: This article has been updated to include a tweet referred to Newsweek by the Tillis campaign.
About the writer
Aila Slisco is a Newsweek night reporter based in New York. Her focus is on reporting national politics, where she ... Read more