Well, here we go, folks! This is the home stretch of all home stretches. The 2024 election is finally here, and this will be the final pre-election version of "The Josh Hammer Report" newsletter. (Trust me, I can't really believe it either!)

At first blush, this election looks like a statistical toss-up. The national and swing state horse-race polling is essentially tied, or at least within the margin of error. But all the recent weeks' momentum continues to be in Donald Trump's favor, notwithstanding ham-fisted media attempts at obfuscation and gaslighting to the contrary—such as the recent attempt to focus on patent nonfactors like an insult comic's recent lame joke at a Trump rally. At this late stage, the fundamentals of the race (who is more trusted on the economy, immigration, abortion, etc.) can pretty much all go out the window. All that is still relevant at this point is the ground game, the get-out-the-vote (GOTV) operation, and any last-minute attempts that can be made to not only encourage one's own low-propensity voters to go cast a ballot, but to also disincentivize the other side's low-propensity voters from doing the same thing.

Let's make some predictions. I predict that Donald Trump retakes the White House by winning all seven of the big swing states currently up for grabs: Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. In fact, I would not be surprised if Trump were to bag another upset in an affirmatively light-blue state, such as Virginia, New Mexico, or New Hampshire. If I am anywhere close to correct, then the GOP will have no problem whatsoever retaking control of the Senate from Majority Leader Chuck Schumer's (D-N.Y.) Democrats; indeed, there is a high likelihood of that, regardless of who wins the White House. The GOP would probably retain control of the House as well, although that is a notoriously difficult prediction in any given political cycle. One of the big remaining questions is the influence and prevalence of the ticket-splitters—a phenomenon we will likely see to a large extent in at least North Carolina (due to unpopular GOP gubernatorial candidate Mark Robinson) and Arizona (with similarly lagging GOP senatorial candidate Kari Lake), out of the seven big swing states.

If I am right, and Trump retakes the White House, he will all but assuredly have done so with historic, record-breaking support from black men, Hispanics (especially Hispanic men), and younger (Millennial and Gen Z) voters. In short, if Trump wins, we will have witnessed in real time the collapse of the 2008 Barack Obama-era Democratic Party intersectional coalition of aggrieved interests. The importance of this cannot possibly be overstated—the "multiethnic working-class coalition" that myriad right-of-centers pundits and think tankers have predicted for years will finally have come to fruition. I'm old enough to remember a time when Democrats smiled, triumphantly pounded their chests, and lectured us all that "demography is destiny." Perhaps the triumphalists were right—just not in the way they thought. In any event, we will all find out together on Tuesday (and hopefully actually on Tuesday, and not in the days that follow).

To keep up with all my media hits and other writings, make sure to follow me on Twitter/X, Instagram, and Facebook. You can listen to all episodes of "The Josh Hammer Show" at the Newsweek website or on Apple, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts. (The show is also on the radio in multiple markets, and we are looking to expand!) I also have a second show, "America on Trial with Josh Hammer," with The First; you can subscribe and listen on Apple, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts. Make sure to also check out my new Subtext chat, which you can read all about and sign up for here.

Our highlighted Newsweek op-eds from the past week include selections from Sen. Roger Marshall (R-Kans.), Brandon Judd, Delano Squires, Paul du Quenoy, and Batya Ungar-Sargon.

We will be back in your inbox next Wednesday—perhaps by then, we will even know who our next president will be! (We certainly should!)