WOW. Just wow. That is pretty much how I'm feeling this morning. The single most remarkable comeback story in American history is officially complete. Donald Trump's myriad enemies have come after him for a decade with a never-ending litany of egregious assaults, from the personal to the political and everything in-between: 2016 campaign spying, "Russia collusion" fabrications, obstinate Deep State obstruction, two failed impeachments, four criminal indictments (totaling 91 counts), and now even literal assassins' bullets. Everything has failed. Donald Trump's enemies couldn't stop him: He is the next president of the United States, set to become the first man since Grover Cleveland over a century ago to reclaim the White House after being dethroned by an interregnum officeholder.
I went out on a limb last week when I publicly predicted that Donald Trump would win all seven of the nation's major battleground states and romp back to the White House come January 2025, but I'm not sure even I could have predicted what we saw last evening. What the nation—and the world—saw last night was total and complete dominance by the Trump-Vance ticket, by Republicans running down-ballot across the country, and by substantive conservative causes presented directly to voters at the ballot box. Many prognosticators (including yours truly) thought the 2022 midterm elections were going to usher in a "red wave"—it turns out we were just two years early with that prediction. Because last night was, indisputably, a wave election.
It's difficult to even know where to begin. While we don't have all the final "official" state-level data yet, it looks like Donald Trump is going to win every single closely contested swing state—likely netting him 312 Electoral College votes, when all is said and done. He appears set to become the first GOP presidential candidate to win the national popular vote since George W. Bush in 2004. (Ditto for a GOP presidential candidate winning the state of Nevada.) Trump outright won among Hispanic men, and he won just under half of Hispanics nationally. He made historic inroads with black men, younger Gen Z/Millennial voters, Jewish voters, and more. He won Zapata County, Texas, the single most Hispanic county in America (97% Hispanic), for the first time in nearly 130 years. He ran over 20 points better in famously diverse Queens County, New York than he did four years ago. He won heavily Hispanic Miami-Dade County, Florida by double-digits—similar to what Gov. Ron DeSantis and Sen. Marco Rubio accomplished in the 2022 midterms. And on and on it goes.
It was yet another major polling miss for all the nation's would-be "respectable" pollsters, who seem structurally incapable of identifying and tapping into the low-propensity voters who form the bedrock of Donald Trump's MAGA coalition. Republicans are set to hold a sizable U.S. Senate majority in January 2025, and they will all but assuredly have control of the U.S. House as well. Conservatives will likely be able to send younger reinforcements to the U.S. Supreme Court and up and down the entire federal judiciary, securing the courts for a generation or more. At the state level, crucial substantive conservative causes also prevailed. In my state of Florida, for instance, national progressives dropped gargantuan sums of money trying to get two radical ballot initiatives—Amendment 3 (marijuana) and Amendment 4 (abortion)—across the finish line. Both failed to secure the 60% supermajority that was necessary for passage, thus ensuring a direct pro-life ballot-box victory for the first time since the June 2022 SCOTUS reversal of Roe v. Wade.
In addition to Donald Trump's story of personal and political redemption, two other takeaways stand out from last night's total domination. First, the 2008 Barack Obama Democratic Party intersectional political coalition is officially dead. Democrats, if they have any intellectual humility, now have a lot of soul-searching to do about how they went way too far left in way too short a time period, thereby alienating once-loyal Democratic constituencies. And second, it has never been more apparent that the Trump-era GOP—a more nationalist and populist political vehicle, focused on working- and middle-class voters' tangible concerns—is here to stay for the long haul. Not that there was much doubt, but it is now clear as day that there will be no going back to the pre-2016 "dead consensus" GOP. And that is a very good thing, indeed.
What a night!
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Our highlighted Newsweek op-eds from the past week include selections from Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Ariz.), Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), Rep. Erin Houchin (R-Ind.), Aviva Klompas, and Joseph Epstein.
Well, if you are anything like me, you now have some serious sleep to catch up on! Alas, I'm not sure I'll be getting that sleep any time soon. Regardless, we will be back in your inbox next Wednesday! Have a great rest of your week and weekend, everyone.