Africa War Fears Grow As Niger Prepares Troops for Ecowas Invasion

Coup leaders in Niger have closed the country's airspace and have brought in reinforcements after the West African group of countries, Ecowas, warned it could use force if President Mohamed Bazoum was not reinstated

Bazoum was detained on July 26, and Gen Abdourahmane Tchiani, commander of the presidential guard, proclaimed himself the new leader, sparking condemnation from leaders from Africa, France, the European Union and the United States.

The former NATO Supreme Allied Commander Europe, James Stavridis, has warned the crisis could potentially lead to a "full-blown war in Africa."

A military source told CNN that Niger's armed forces brought in a convoy of about 40 pick-up trucks from other parts of the country on Sunday evening.

The U.S. has evacuated some staff from its embassy in the capital in Niamey, while the estimated 1,000 American troops stationed in the country were restricted to their bases. The U.S. State Department said on Friday it was pausing certain foreign assistance programs for Niger's government.

Ecowas (Economic Community of West African States) is a regional trading bloc of 15 countries, including Nigeria, Senegal, Togo and Ghana, which had issued an ultimatum demanding generals relinquish power by midnight Sunday.

Following a crisis meeting on Friday, Ecowas commissioner for political affairs, peace and security Abdel-Fatau Musah said plans for an intervention had been "worked out," which included "the how and when we are going to deploy the force."

However, a representative from Niger's junta said they had information that "a foreign power" was preparing to attack the country. Meanwhile, thousands of the coup leaders' supporters rallied at a stadium in the capital Niamey.

Two of Niger's neighbors, Burkina Faso and Mali, where coups have also taken place in recent years, had earlier warned they would treat any outside military intervention in Niger as "a declaration of war" against them.

Niger plays a critical role in the Western fight against Islamist militias in the Sahel region, as well as people smuggling. The crisis poses a significant problem for France, which stands to lose a military partner in the region and access to up to 30 percent of its uranium, which it requires to produce nuclear power.

Niger's uranium assets are developed through the Nigerien government's joint ventures with France's state-owned uranium company and these contracts are not easily canceled, Robert Besseling, CEO of security and intelligence company Pangea-Risk, told Newsweek.

"Niger would undoubtedly lose access to IMF funding, budget support, and extensive investment commitments if French mining contracts are canceled," he said, although oil sector operations that China has struck are unlikely to be affected.

In its post-coup assessment, Pangea-Risk said that the M62 opposition coalition was likely behind pro-coup and anti-French demonstrations.

They has been backed by the Unité d'Actions Syndicales du Niger—a coalition of 14 trade unions—which has called for all French companies to leave Niger and all foreign military bases in the country to be closed.

"If the new junta does not firmly seize power in coming days, the political vacuum will increase the probability of countercoups and outbreaks of wider unrest," its assessment said.

The unrest has led to fears that the junta may seek to switch allegiance to Russia, involving the Wagner Group of mercenaries, whose leader Yevgeny Prigozhin welcomed the move against French "colonizers."

"Russia's government, and by extension Russian private military companies will definitely seek engagement with the new junta in Niger, given the country's strategic resources and importance as a western partner in counterterrorism and immigration control," Besseling told Newsweek, although he did not believe this signaled any impending proxy war between Russia and the West there.

Newsweek has contacted Ecowas for comment.