Is Niger Coup a Proxy War Between Russia and the West? What We Know

Reports from Niger about citizens raising Russian flags and chanting "Wagner" have been circulating in the week since its President Mohamed Bazoum was overthrown in a coup.

These accounts are prompting questions about Moscow's relationship with the former French colony in West Africa—and what role the Wagner Group of mercenaries could play there.

Wagner founder Yevgeny Prigozhin welcomed the news that General Abdourahamane Tiani had taken power, describing it as a move against French "colonizers" and hinting in a Telegram voice message that his fighters might offer security services.

There is no evidence the Kremlin had any involvement in the military overthrow and it has described the situation as "cause for serious concern," but the coup comes as anti-French sentiment is rising in a region pivoting towards Moscow.

Bazoum was overthrown on July 26 when members of his own guard detained him. Since he took office in 2021—in Niger's first democratic transition of power since independence from France in 1960—his government has been a target for militants linked to the Islamic State group and al-Qaeda.

Under pressure from the Islamists, armies recently seized power in two of Niger's neighbors, Mali and Burkina Faso. Both are former French colonies where anger at France has intensified. The junta in Mali welcomed Wagner, while Burkina Faso's military leadership has grown close to Russia and expelled hundreds of French forces.

At stake in Niger are significant French and American military assets and a critical partner in the fight against militant Islamism and illegal migration to Europe.

"Should the Niger crisis devolve into a military conflict, we could see the possibility of a proxy war," said Zev Faintuch, senior intelligence analyst at the security firm Global Guardian. However, he told Newsweek that he believes this scenario is unlikely at the moment.

On Wednesday, European governments continued to evacuate their nationals from Niger. Defense chiefs from West Africa's regional political and security bloc are set to meet in Abuja, the capital of Nigeria, to discuss the coup.

"The tail-risk scenario could include France and the U.S. aiding an anti-coup coalition led by Nigeria and Chad and Wagner could help lead the Malian military into the fray," Faintuch said. "Should Niger invite the presence of Wagner, then only Chad would stand in the way of creating a [pro-Moscow] contiguous belt across Africa."

However, Faintuch added that he thought Wagner would need a "political excuse" to move in Niger. This could include an intervention by Chad or the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), with low-key support from France. The ECOWAS has condemned the coup.

The junta leaders splitting into factions or civil disobedience in support of Bazoum are also possible and Faintuch said these "could all provide sufficient cover for Prigozhin to deploy his men to Niger."

Prigozhin's Wagner

Prigozhin himself appears to have freedom of movement, despite his mutiny against the Russian military establishment in June and the deal that was supposed to exile him to Belarus.

After the Wagner rebellion, Moscow made assurances that the group would continue to operate in Africa. "Prigozhin isn't 6 feet in the ground because Wagner's presence in the region is so vitally important to Russian foreign policy," said Faintuch.

"Long term, both Putin and Prigozhin see Africa as Russia's future with a growing population, a wealth of resources and plenty of room for economic development that Russia can benefit from."

Moscow sought to cement those ties with an Africa-Russia summit last week, though only 17 African heads of state attended.

At the time, Prigozhin told an African news outlet that Wagner was ready to increase its presence in the continent—an added concern for Western governments, including France and the United States.

Resentment Against France

"The main problem is resentment against France in Niger, because over the years they don't see any real benefit of having it as a strong ally," said Olayinka Ajala, an expert on the region and senior politics lecturer at Leeds Beckett University in the U.K.

"France having a large military presence has not really eradicated insurgency in the country," he told Newsweek.

"They feel, what's the point of having all these military camps and bases without significant economic development?" he said. "They feel that maybe if they look outside of France and more towards Russia or China, they might actually have better economic prospects."

The ECOWAS has threatened to use force to put down the coup, while other countries in the region that are led by juntas—Guinea as well as Burkina Faso and Mali—are seeking to form a military alliance. They have declared that foreign military intervention in Niger would be considered a declaration of war against them.

Ajala said Niger's new leaders could use the prospect of joining this military alliance as leverage, if their demands are not met. They could also engage with the Wagner Group to combat the Islamist insurgency, which could lead to a growth of Russian influence in the country.

However, just as France does not want to be seen to react too strongly, confirming the negative sentiment against them, Russia also has to tread a fine diplomatic line.

"ECOWAS have been united in condemning this and Russia would not want to see anything that is contrary to that," said Ajala. "I don't see Russia actively getting involved in this because diplomatically it will impact on them."