Prigozhin's Failed Putsch Is a Huge Coup for Ukraine

Russian President Vladimir Putin has been weakened by the failed rebellion led by Wagner Group boss Yevgeny Prigozhin, the European Union's foreign policy chief has said.

Josep Borrell, the EU's high representative for foreign affairs and security policy, outlined the lessons he believes should be drawn from Prigozhin's short-lived mutiny on June 24, including that Russia's war against Ukraine has weakened Putin's regime "far more than many observers had thought" and that the lack of resistance from Russian forces as the Wagner Group marched on Moscow demonstrated "the depth of the divisions within the Russian army and state apparatus."

"Even if this attempted coup ultimately failed, Putin has suffered a serious loss of authority, with real consequences for the future," Borrell wrote in a blog, adding that the mutiny should not lead Europe to "slow down our support for Ukraine. On the contrary."

Prigozhin's uprising saw his fighters seize two military hubs in southern Russia and advance on Moscow. He announced a "march of justice" against the country's military leadership over the handling of the war in Ukraine, demanding the resignation of Russia's Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov.

The Wagner chief said his forces faced no resistance as they advanced from southern Russia to the capital, while the head of the Russian National Guard, Viktor Zolotov, said on June 27 that Moscow concentrated all forces on the defense of the city "otherwise they would have passed through us like a knife through butter."

Russia's Most Combat-Ready Unit

Prigozhin was exiled to Belarus as part of a deal brokered by Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko to end the crisis and he hasn't been sighted publicly since the end of his rebellion, when he departed from Russia's southern city of Rostov-on-Don. Lukashenko said he offered Prigozhin and his fighters "an absolutely profitable and acceptable option for resolving the situation, with security guarantees."

Although the precise details of Prigozhin's deal with Lukashenko remain unclear, the Wagner Group's relocation to Belarus will remove from the war in Ukraine the group of fighters described by Andrey Kartapolov, head of Russia's State Duma Defense Committee, as Russia's most combat-ready.

During the turmoil in Russia, Ukraine has been able to concentrate on pushing forward with its counter-offensive, and has been making "steady, gradual advances," according to the Institute for the Study of War think tank.

Surovikin

The deputy commander of Russia's military operations in Ukraine, General Sergei Surovikin, also appeared to be sidelined in the aftermath of the rebellion. Citing Russian Defense Ministry sources, the Russian-language version of The Moscow Times said Surovikin had been arrested for siding with Prigozhin during the failed coup.

Russian military blogger, Vladimir Romanov, also said on Telegram that Surovikin had been arrested on June 25, the day after Prigozhin marched on Moscow.

The British Defense Ministry said in an intelligence report on Wednesday that another high-ranking Russian general, Deputy Defense Minister Yunus-Bek Yevkurov, has been notably absent from the public field after Prigozhin's mutiny.

Vlad Mykhnenko, an expert in the post-communist transformation of Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union at the University of Oxford, told Newsweek that despite all the rumors about Surovikin's arrest, the Kremlin has attempted to squash any suspicion about the mutiny really being a "generals' Putsch", "whilst everyone understands no one was really trying to stop Prigozhin's convoy speeding to Moscow."

"And because the elites really know the reality, Putin's attempt to play 'nicely', rather than putting half a dozen of generals against the wall, is another sign of weakness."

Mykhnenko added: "Putin's afraid to investigate for he might find out no one in the Ministry of Defense and the General Staff really supports him."

Prigozhin's Mutiny Set a Precedent

Keir Giles, an expert on Russia and a senior consulting fellow at the Chatham House think tank, said Prigozhin has demonstrated the vulnerability of Putin's reign more effectively than any previous challenge.

"Most damagingly of all, Prigozhin's mutiny has set a precedent. It is clear that you can not only challenge Putin, but survive doing so. That means it is not a question of if, but when a new challenge will arise," Giles told Newsweek.

He said all of these factors present an opportunity for Ukraine to "win its war to defeat and evict the Russian invaders, and for the western coalition of nations backing Ukraine to ensure that the Russian threat is neutralized."

Giles noted however that while the removal of Wagner from the Ukrainian front does reduce the resources available to Russia to prosecute its war, the group's arrival in Belarus may introduce a new complication for Ukraine.

"Much will depend on how exactly they are made use of by Minsk—which may not necessarily have been expecting their arrival," he said, hinting at the possibility of Wagner fighters launching a fresh attack into Ukraine from Belarus.

"While previous threats of renewed incursions from Belarus have been no more than feints by Russia, intended to distract and divert Ukrainian forces, the arrival of Wagner does give either Russia or Belarus a new capability on that northern axis—if it can be used.

"Either country will face a severe challenge integrating those Wagner employees who will be disaffected and angry after the abortive mutiny," Giles added.

'Colossal Damage'

Top Putin ally and Kremlin propagandist Vladimir Solovyov weighed in on the mutiny attempt on his radio show Polniy Kontakt (Full Contact) last week, saying that it has revealed information to the "enemy." He branded the rebellion as an act of treason that has caused colossal damage to Russia's reputation.

Meanwhile, Boris Bondarev, a former Russian diplomat who resigned in protest at Moscow's war in Ukraine, previously told Newsweek he believes Prigozhin's mutiny attempt will ultimately lead to the downfall of Putin.

Newsweek has contacted Russia's Foreign Ministry via email for comment.

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