Prigozhin Blew It

Wagner Group boss Yevgeny Prigozhin blew any chances of entering Russia's political arena when he marched on Moscow in a mutiny attempt on June 24, a former Russian diplomat who resigned in protest at President Vladimir Putin's war in Ukraine has told Newsweek.

"Prigozhin had his chance on Saturday," Boris Bondarev, Russia's first and only diplomat to publicly quit over Putin's war in Ukraine, said when asked whether Prigozhin has a political future after he and his fighters abandoned their "march for justice," advancing from southern Russia to within 120 miles of Moscow.

In his aborted mutiny, which lasted less than 24 hours, the Wagner Group boss said he took control of two military hubs in southern Russia and advanced to Moscow as part of a "march of justice" against the country's military leadership. The Russian tycoon declared that his goal was the resignation of the men leading Russia's war in Ukraine—Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov.

Bondarev, who was a member of Russia's delegation to the United Nations in Geneva until he resigned publicly in May 2022, said Prigozhin had the opportunity on June 24 to carry out his uprising in a way that could have brought him support—something he failed to do.

"He had to do some political things—to call upon the people, call up the military [and] other armed agencies to join him. He should have clearly pictured his goals, his political goals...that potentially could have brought him some support," the former diplomat said.

Prigozhin's paramilitary outfit, the Wagner Group, was brought into Putin's war in Ukraine by the Kremlin after Russia failed to take Kyiv in the spring of 2022. Military observers have assessed that as the war dragged on, the Kremlin establishment sensed Prigozhin had greater ambitions, and he was seen as becoming more dangerous in terms of his political persona.

The Russian tycoon's public feud with the military establishment intensified in the weeks leading up to his mutiny attempt, and reached a boiling point when he cast doubt on Putin's justifications for launching a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, saying they were lies fed to him by the Kremlin's top brass. His uprising followed hours later.

His popularity with the Russian public was also rising as he intensified his verbal barrage against Shoigu and Gerasimov, ranking in polls that label him as a figure Russians trust and are proud of for the first time in May and June.

Vlad Mykhnenko, an expert in the post-communist transformation of Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union at the University of Oxford, U.K., previously told Newsweek that the main activity of Prigozhin during Russia's war in Ukraine "has always been trying to capitalize on the war and amass more assets and resources in Russia itself."

Prigozhin's aim was "to get a formal government post, or a big political leadership role, i.e., to convert his military assets into tangible economic and political assets inside Russia," said Mykhnenko.

Bondarev said that on June 24, Prigozhin miscalculated and mismanaged his political campaign and "spoiled and ruined his potentially good relations with the army."

"He's not a good politician. What he says is quite real, and he says the right things about why this war was started in the first place, how the oligarchs and corrupt ministers officials make fortunes on this, and that this war is needed by no one, people are dying," said Bondarev.

Prigozhin an 'Outsider'

The former diplomat said where Prigozhin failed is that he didn't develop this criticism into a political program or a political structure, and he also doesn't have allies within the country.

"He's an outsider for Putin's elite, they don't like him and they are afraid of him. He is someone who thinks differently and acts differently—he acts on his own, and he can act with some courage that Putin's elite have no knowledge about...because they never act, they always look up to Putin and wait for his command."

"He's an outsider and without huge support from people from society from low ranks and middle ranks, officers, he could not prevail," Bondarev continued.

Bondarev said that whatever intentions Prigozhin had, "he had to abandon them and turn back."

"Perhaps he didn't see enough support, but he didn't do anything really to get the support."

Prigozhin's stated intention to remove Shoigu was a "very strange goal for a coup," said Bondarev.

"If you want to do something, you must ensure very clear and fascinating goals, so that people would admire this and say, 'Wow, that's our guy.'"

Bondarev added: "But nobody wants to march upon Moscow to fight just to get rid of some minister of defense, and just to get another minister of defense nobody cares about. So I think he miscalculated, and he mismanaged his political campaign."

Newsweek has contacted Russia's Foreign Ministry via email for comment.

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