Putin Ally Warned Prigozhin His Life Was at Risk

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko said Friday that he offered a two-word warning to the presumably killed Wagner Group chief, Yevgeny Prigozhin: "Watch out."

Prigozhin is said to have been one of 10 passengers aboard a plane that crashed—some say it was shot down by Russian Defense Ministry missiles—on Wednesday in the Tver region, two months after his private military company's attempted coup on the Kremlin.

He was reportedly traveling from Moscow to St. Petersburg, even though previously brokered negotiations with Russian President Vladimir Putin stipulated that Prigozhin and his men were to seek refuge in Belarus as permitted by Lukashenko.

"First, when I called him and negotiations were underway, when [Wagner Group forces] were marching on Moscow—I told him, 'Zhenya [Prigozhin], do you realize that your people will be killed and you will be killed?'" Lukashenko said on Friday, according to state-run media outlet Belta.

"He was enraged; he had come straight from the front: 'To hell with it, let me be killed!' So I told him, 'Zhenya, let me send you a piece of rope and a bar of soap.'"

Prigozhin reportedly replied that he "didn't want it to happen this way," and that he hoped to "die a hero."

A second conversation between Lukashenko and Prigozhin post-mutiny included Dmitry Utkin, a Wagner co-founder and military commander. Lukashenko said he warned both of them, "Watch out, guys."

Reports do not indicate when Lukashenko, who helped negotiate Prigozhin and Wagner's refuge in Belarus following the June 23 coup, iterated his concerns to the former oligarch.

The Belarusian president, one of Putin's closest allies in the 18-month war in Ukraine, also said he didn't think the Kremlin leader was behind the plane being shot down due to it being a "sloppy, unprofessional job."

"I know Putin. He is a calculating, very calm, and even sluggish person when he makes decisions on other less important matters," Lukashenko said. "This is why I cannot imagine that Putin did it, that Putin is guilty."

Up to 10,000 Wagner fighters will remain in Belarus, Lukashenko added, dispelling a report by Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty's Belarusian service that showed satellite imagery of 101 out of 272 tents being removed—akin to potentially more than 2,000 mercenaries leaving the base.

"Why are we removing extra tents? We don't need that many," Lukashenko said. "The core will stay here. Some are on leave. Some decided to live somewhere else, but the core has their contact information. Within several days, all of them will be here."

Sarah Ashton-Cirillo, a spokesperson for Ukraine's Territorial Defense Forces, posted a video on X, formerly Twitter, showing Wagner fighters' gravesites purportedly being removed.

Sergej Sumlenny, founder and managing director of the European Resilience Initiative Center, a Berlin-based think tank, told Newsweek via Signal on Friday that Lukashenko's words should be taken with a grain of salt.

"Of course, it is in Putin's interest that Wagnerites remain in Belarus in a camp, where they can stay in the middle of nowhere and not go to Russia with some sort of a new mutiny or at least violent criminal gang," he said.

It also leads to further speculation about the next course of action for Wagner fighters, he said. On Thursday, a pro-Ukrainian Russian volunteer corps extended an offer for the mercenaries to join its alliance against Putin and the Kremlin.

"Many [Wagner fighters] have been already integrated into the Russian army, many have canceled their contracts," Sumlenny said. "But what happens to those who remained? We cannot say, and we already heard calls from 'Russian Legion' to join them.

"I do not think many will follow. But it is a sign that the remaining Wagnerites turn into a sort of a prize for creating unrest in Russia."

Artyom Shraibman, a Belarusian political analyst and founder of Sense Analytics consultancy, told Newsweek via Telegram on Friday that the Belarusian site may be utilized as a type of headquarters for Wagner fighters—possibly for Russian leadership to rotate troops should they stick with the cause.

However, he doesn't believe most Wagner fighters will stay. Lukashenko likely can't convince them, either.

"[Lukashenko's] just continuing to serve the same function he served before Prigozhin died," Shraibman said. "He is no place to overtake control over these troops, so whoever will run them—the Russian government or whoever will be left of the Wagner leadership—Lukashenko will simply be doing his job and something that he subscribed to do. Not much has changed."