Putin's Biggest Weak Spot Exposed as Ukraine's Ambition Grows

Russian President Vladimir Putin could soon be facing a devastating loss in his war in Ukraine, one that could cost him his entire career.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in recent months has increased talk of wanting Crimea to once again be recognized as part of his country, and the reality of the proposition increases as his military forces continue to be seen as having an advantage over the invading Russians.

Losing the peninsula that Russia took by force in 2014 could be seen as one of the biggest defeats that Putin could suffer in the war, and the setback could result in the end of his presidency, according to sources with knowledge on Russia.

The loss would create "a sense in Russia that Putin is not able to manage things and would definitely weaken him politically," Catholic University of America history professor Michael Kimmage told Newsweek.

Sean Spoonts, a U.S. Navy veteran and editor-in-chief of the military news outlet SOFREP, told Newsweek that Putin's fate could be even worse than losing his job if Crimea falls to Ukraine.

"Putin might find the generals in the army, the leadership of his government and the oligarchs all putting pressure on him to step down," Spoonts said. "Or they poison him, or someone shoots him in the custom in Russian changes in leadership."

Putin and Kremlin officials have stated that Russia will only enter into peace negotiations with Ukraine if Zelensky recognizes the four Ukrainian territories Russia illegitimately annexed in September. Meanwhile, Zelensky has made it clear multiple times that not only will he refuse to allow Russia to claim those territories, but he also wants Crimea to be part of Ukraine again.

"Crimea is the most dangerous part of this war, without any question," Kimmage said. "For Zelensky, it's crystal clear that it needs to be back in Ukraine. For Putin, it's crystal clear that Crimea is Russian. So only one of them can win in this sense. And that just raises the stakes."

Giving up control of Crimea would not only be a black mark on Putin's military, but it would also unleash the wrath of Russian elites, according to Spoonts.

"The oligarch class owns lots of stuff in Crimea including hotels, resorts, boats, homes, and various other businesses," Spoonts said. "Russia has poured huge sums of money into the region in roads, bridges, ports and a grain terminal. They would lose all of that."

"Since the annexation of Crimea to Russia was so very popular with the Russian public in 2014, Putin's losing it either militarily or through negotiations could spell his doom," George Mason University Schar School of Policy and Government professor Mark N. Katz told Newsweek.

As such, Katz said Putin will resort to the most drastic of means to hold on to the territory.

"I just don't see Putin ceding control of Crimea no matter how desperate the situation he faces becomes," Katz said. "Indeed, if he really anticipated the possibility that Ukrainian forces could retake Crimea, I think we'd see Putin raising the specter of using nuclear weapons to get the West to force Zelensky to back down."

William Reno, professor and chair of the political science department at Northwestern University, told Newsweek that even if Putin holds on to Crimea, his reign as president may come to an end due to the war.

"My view is he's in trouble, no matter what. The outcome in Ukraine, even if Russia 'wins' in the Kremlin's current war goals, deals Russia a devastating strategic setback," Reno said. "Russia's exports of natural resources have become problematic. No one will want its weaponry. They chased off the most productive parts of their own population. Their economy will struggle as neighbors' economies grow...Even in an authoritarian state, its hard for a leadership that screwed up so bad to survive."

Reno continued, "All that's to say, this war will end in a negotiated settlement—possibly with Crimea as something other than an integral part of Ukraine—and it becomes increasingly difficult to imagine that Putin will be part of that process."

Newsweek reached out to the Russian ministry of foreign affairs for comment.