Putin Tightens Mobilization Noose with Tenfold Hike in Draft-Dodging Fines

Russian President Vladimir Putin on Sunday signed a new law that will significantly increase fines for those trying to dodge military summons, amid speculation the Kremlin is considering a second mobilization order to bolster its forces in Ukraine.

Previously, Russians failing to present themselves at a military registration office after being summoned could face fines of between 500 rubles ($5) and 3,000 rubles. The new legislation will increase that to a flat fine of 30,000 rubles, with higher fines of 400,000 to 500,000 rubles, and 60,000 to 80,000 rubles, for legal entities and Russian government officials, respectively, for failing to submit military registration lists to recruiters.

The Kremlin is trying to make it more difficult for its citizens to avoid the draft. Despite persistent rumors, Moscow has not yet ordered a second wave of mobilization. The first began in September 2022 and aimed to add 300,000 troops to the armed forces amid the pressures of Russia's stalled war on Ukraine.

Observers expect a second mobilization to have a significant impact on the Russian economy. A further wave of forced recruitment might also prompt more Russians to flee the country, as they did in September, when hundreds of thousands are believed to have emigrated to escape military service.

In its Monday bulletin, the Institute for the Study of War said the Kremlin's goal is to "expand combat power without conducting general mobilization."

The Kremlin is gradually strengthening the conscription process and expanding the pool of new potential troops. In April, for example, Putin signed a new law introducing digital call up notices for conscripts, making it more difficult for citizens to deny having received instructions to report for enlistment.

And last month, parliament approved new legislation expanding the age window in which Russians must serve one year of military service—which was previously between 18 and 27—to between 18 and 30 years of age.

Though such conscripts cannot legally be deployed outside Russia, there are widespread reports of new recruits being pressured into signing contracts that enable their deployment to the battlefields of Ukraine.

Russian authorities are embarking on an ambitious plan, announced in 2022, to expand their combat personnel by some 30 percent to 1.5 million people. The Kremlin is seeking to plug the gaps left by significant casualties incurred during the war against Ukraine, which after nearly 18 months of costly fighting shows no sign of ending.

Russia has also been forcibly recruiting men from occupied Ukrainian regions to fight at the front. Andriy Chernyak, a representative of Ukraine's military intelligence directorate, said last weekend that around 55,000 to 60,000 men have been mobilized from occupied Crimea since the beginning of 2022.

Russia and Ukraine do not release up-to-date casualty figures. Documents released in the Pentagon leaks earlier this year suggested there had been between 189,500 and 223,000 Russian casualties as of February, including up to 43,000 people killed in action.

On the Ukrainian side, the Pentagon estimated 124,500 to 131,000 casualties by the same date, with around 17,500 thought to have been killed in action.

Newsweek has contacted the Russian defense ministry by email to request comment.