Putin's Failing to Protect His Elite Black Sea Fleet

Ukraine in recent weeks has conducted a series of high-profile attacks on Russia's Black Sea Fleet in Crimea, the destructiveness and frequency of which have called into question Russia's ability to defend its positions in the region.

While Russia's naval forces in Crimea had been left relatively alone for much of the war that Russian President Vladimir Putin began with the invasion on February 24, 2022, strikes on the fleet increased not long after Kyiv ramped up its military activity in Crimea during its ongoing counteroffensive.

Ukraine hit the headquarters of the Black Sea Fleet in the Crimean city of Sevastopol last week in a strike that Kyiv said killed at least nine and wounded more than a dozen others. Only a week earlier, a major Ukrainian operation on the Black Sea Fleet's shipyard severely damaged Russia's Minsk Ropucha-class large landing ship and Rostov-on-Don Kilo-class attack submarine.

"The success of the Ukrainians in the Black Sea is, I feel, telling," Guy McCardle, managing editor of Special Operations Forces Report (SOFREP), told Newsweek. "The Russians don't seem to have enough weaponry to defend their naval vessels, and the Ukrainians know this."

John Spencer, retired U.S. Army major and chair of Urban Warfare Studies at the Madison Policy Forum, told Newsweek that Russia's defenses in the Crimean port wouldn't be helped by installing howitzer cannons.

"Ukraine has exposed a major air defense vulnerability in Crimea in general and clearly in Sevastopol," Spencer said.

He explained that Russia seems to lack air defense equipment like sufficient radar capabilities to detect incoming attacks, as well as weapons to shoot down incoming drones and munitions.

"Ukraine has found a way—electronic warfare, different tactics—to negate some Russian air defense capabilities such as the S-300/S-400 [missile systems]," Spencer said. "That may be why we are seeing such an uptick in attacks as Ukraine is taking advantage of whatever they have discovered to attack high-value targets like the Black Sea Fleet command, ships in the harbor, etc., until Russia figures out what the vulnerability is."

McCardle also noted that Russia can likely do little to bolster its defenses in the region due to diminished resources.

"It would not be hard to move defensive batteries around the Black Sea ports," he said. "I think at this point the Russians have hard choices about where to utilize their remaining assets."

The success of the attacks might also be partially attributed to the amount of weapons at Kyiv's disposal. Along with weapons supplied from its Western allies, Ukraine has been able to produce its own combat drones at a high rate. A recent report from the Royal United Services Institute estimated that Ukraine loses about 10,000 drones per month fighting Russia, yet the frequency of the attacks has not decreased.

"The Ukrainians seem to have a never-ending supply of drones and missiles and are putting them to good effects against the Black Sea Fleet," McCardle said.

As for why Kyiv has turned so much of its attention toward the Black Sea Fleet, Northwestern University political science professor William Reno told Newsweek that the reason could be that Ukraine is trying to shift the Russian public's sentiment about the war.

"Ukraine's attacks into Crimea do not significantly degrade Russia's military capability," Reno said, adding that "the real aim" is to show the Russian citizens that Moscow "can't even protect its military headquarters in Crimea from Ukrainian attacks.

"While most Russians may have limited access to news of these events, dissatisfaction with Russian performance appears on Telegram channels. One can imagine Russia's elite, including in the military, are growing impatient."

In the end of his assessment, Spencer referenced a comment that Oleksiy Danilov, the secretary of Ukraine's security council, recently posted on X, formerly Twitter.

"Russia has a big problem, and it clearly shows they have a weakness," Spencer said. "If this continues, Kyiv would be able to do what one Ukrainian source stated—'cut up the Black Sea Fleet like salami slices.'"