Map Shows How Republicans Most Likely to Flip Senate

A new Real Clear Politics (RCP) map projects that four states will turn the tide in the Republican Party's favor and give the GOP the Senate majority come 2023.

The four Republican pick-ups this cycle according to RCP projections are in the states of Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and New Hampshire. That scenario would give the GOP a 54-46 Senate advantage, compared to the current makeup that consists of 50 Republicans, 48 Democrats and two independents who caucus with the Democrats.

Republican venture capitalist Blake Masters is projected to flip the seat in Arizona currently held by Democratic incumbent Mark Kelly, a former astronaut.

That race has been mostly controlled by Kelly, at least until the pair debated on October 6. Following the debate, polling averages showed a strong uptick for Masters that closed the gap on Kelly's approximate 4-point lead down to about 1.5 percentage points.

The Georgia race between Democratic incumbent Raphael Warnock and Republican former football player Herschel Walker may be the closest in the entire country.

RCP projects that race will ultimately go to a runoff election on December 6 due to neither candidate receiving the majority of statewide votes. The current RCP average shows Walker with a post-debate bump and a narrow 1.6-point margin, 47.6 percent to 46 percent.

Nevada is a tight race between the Senate's first-ever Latina incumbent, Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto, and Republican Adam Laxalt, the former state attorney general.

Cortez Masto is among the most vulnerable Democrats this cycle and requires a strong turnout to hold her seat. Reports indicate it hasn't happened yet, with numbers showing early in-person votes in the all-important Clark County down about 60 percent compared to the same point in 2020.

That could indicate that "a higher proportion of people are planning on voting by mail this year compared to 2020," John Samuelsen, a science and technology administrator at the University of Arkansas, told Newsweek.

It was reported on October 25 that over 41,000 mail-in ballots had been cast: about 20,000 from registered Democrats, compared to about 10,600 from Republicans. The remaining ballots were cast by independents.

Democratic Senator Maggie Hassan is projected by RCP to lose to Republican Donald Bolduc in New Hampshire. Recent polling has shown Hassan with a consistent lead that has dwindled fast.

The GOP sees an opportunity to tip the Senate scale in a way it didn't likely envision this year. That is evident by the money coming into the state.

After the Mitch McConnell-aligned Senate Leadership Fund recommitted funds to the contest between Republican Dr. Mehmet Oz and Democrat John Fetterman in Pennsylvania, the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) announced a plan to recommit $1 million in resources in Bolduc's favor.

That Pennsylvania race that has teetered back and forth is labeled as a "GOP hold" by RCP, with Oz predicted to take over the seat being vacated by retiring Republican Senator Pat Toomey.

All aforementioned GOP candidates have been endorsed by former President Donald Trump.

In three of the four races projected to favor the GOP, it is due to what RCP defines as an underestimated Republican electorate in the states of Arizona, Georgia and New Hampshire. Only Nevada shows Democrats underestimated by 2.1 points.