Republicans Will Lose House in 2024, GOP Strategist Predicts

A long-time Republican political strategist offered the party a grim forecast on Sunday, suggesting that Democrats have a shot at retaking the House in 2024.

Ed Rollins is a veteran GOP consultant with a long history of working with major presidential campaigns, going all the way back to Ronald Reagan's reelection efforts in 1984. More recently, he co-chaired Donald Trump's Great America political action committee (PAC), before pivoting away from the former president and helping to launch the Ready for Ron PAC, a group dedicated to the presidential campaign of Florida Governor Ron DeSantis.

However, with the governor's campaign seeming to stagnate amid doubts about his viability as a national candidate, Rollins's enthusiasm for DeSantis and Republican odds next year, in general, appear to be tumbling. Speaking with Rolling Stone for a piece published on Sunday, Rollins confirmed that he is no longer involved in pro-DeSantis efforts and, in an extended quote shared to Twitter by reporter Asawin Suebsaeng, admitted that Trump will likely become the 2024 Republican nominee for president. With Trump once again in that position, he also predicted a second term for President Joe Biden and that the GOP might lose its slim majority in the House of Representatives.

"I don't think it's the campaign's fault at all; it's his," Rollins said. "I think he's been a very flawed candidate. I know some of the people around him, and some of them are good, talented people. But every time he opens his mouth, he has a tendency to—shall we say—think out loud, and he clearly doesn't understand the game...DeSantis is the only one who has the resources [to win against Trump in the primary], but he's diminishing by the day."

Rollins derided the Florida governor as "not a particular articulate candidate" lacking in the skill to connect with voters and understand their problems, a skill he attributed to the likes of "Ronald Reagan, Bill Clinton, and Barack Obama." He also echoed the concerns of many others that DeSantis has focused too heavily on culture war issues that have not played well outside of Florida.

"At this point in time, I don't see how he's going to turn it around," Rollins added. "I think it's gonna be Trump's game, and at this point in time, I would be shocked if Trump were not the nominee...And at the end of the day, I don't see how Trump is a viable presidential candidate in part because of his legal problem, but I certainly think he is the favorite to be the nominee. So, unless something serious happens, Biden is probably going to get a second term..and I could even see Republicans losing their majority in the House."

Republicans currently hold a slim majority in the House of Representatives, with 222 compared to 212 held by Democrats. While the opposition party historically performs well in the midterms after a new president takes office, Republicans underperformed significantly in the 2022 elections, failing to retake the Senate and taking far fewer House seats than anticipated. Many pundits pointed to the continued influence of Trump on the party as a major factor driving away voters from the GOP, a trend that the likes of Rollins see continuing into 2024.

Newsweek reached out to the offices of DeSantis and Trump via email for comment.