How Russia's Seven Front Lines Shape Up for Ukraine's Counteroffensive

Russia is operating along seven axes that could determine how Ukraine will carry out its anticipated counteroffensive, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

With growing speculation over the next move of Kyiv's forces next move is, the United States-based think tank outlined how Russian troops were engaged in five offensive operations.

These operations were in Lupyansk, Luhansk, Bakhmut, Avdiivka-Donetsk City, and western Donetsk/eastern Zaporizhia. Russian defensive operations were taking place in the western Zaporizhia Oblast and Kherson Oblast axes, the ISW said on Sunday.

Offensive operations

In Kupyansk, Russia has committed parts of its Western Military District (WMD) to limited offensive operations in the first part of 2023, although they have "failed to make operationally significant gains," according to the ISW.

It added that the WMD's 2nd Motor Rifle Division has probably deployed towards the Kharkiv-Luhansk Oblast border.

Another front is along the Svatove/Kreminna line. There, Russia has committed parts of two military districts—the WMD and the Central Military District—as well as two airborne divisions, to an unsuccessful offensive in Luhansk Oblast that has culminated and only made a few localized tactical gains.

The third front outlined by the ISW is in Bakhmut, the Donetsk town fiercely fought over for months. It said that the resources Moscow has committed to fighting for the town suggest it wants to capture it before the start of the Ukrainian counteroffensive.

The fourth Russian frontline, as described by the ISW, was the Avdiivka-Donetsk City axis, where Moscow has committed units from the Northern Fleet, the Southern Military District (SMD) and part of the Donetsk People's Republic.

However, Russia has made "no operationally significant progress on this axis in 2023 beyond marginal tactical advances around Avdiivka and within Marinka," the ISW said.

Meanwhile, in the southern Donetsk/eastern Zaporizhia axis, Eastern Military District elements in western Donetsk Oblast near Vuhledar "have suffered continued losses during repeated failed attempts to take Vuhledar," the ISW said.

Defensive operations

Regarding Russia's defensive operations, Moscow has committed SMD elements and irregular formations to its western Zaporizhia axis. They are likely to be "less exhausted and degraded than forces elsewhere on the front" due to the largely defensive nature of operations," the think tank said. Russia's groupings in Kherson Oblast are also likely to be "the most disorganized and undermanned in the entire theater."

Since Russia's withdrawal from Kherson city last year, this sector of the front has been "mostly static," while morale, poor training and discipline are issues, "especially since more competent conventional elements are engaged elsewhere."

Reports emerged over the weekend that Ukrainian troops had landed on the east bank of the Dnieper River amid speculation over a Ukrainian offensive that might be aimed at pushing south of the river as far as annexed Crimea.

Newsweek reached out to the Russian Defense Ministry via email for comment.