Russia Racing Against Time in Bakhmut

Russian forces are focused on capturing Bakhmut as soon as they can before Ukraine launches its much-anticipated counteroffensive, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has said.

The U.S. think tank noted Sunday that the Wagner Group of mercenaries fighting for Moscow continued to take heavy losses but "may well be able to complete the seizure" of the Donetsk city at some point.

It said the group's leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin, had ceded the northern and southwestern flanks of Bakhmut to the Russian Ministry of Defense. Meanwhile, the Russian Air Force (VDV) is "supporting the Wagner main effort "in the city, which has been fought over for months.

This air support is likely to allow Wagner to make more gains and push Ukrainian forces towards a withdrawal from Bakhmut.

The co-operation between Wagner and the VDV suggests that Russia's military leadership, which Prigozhin had previously criticized, was showing Moscow's wish "to expedite" Bakhmut's capture.

The pattern of commitment around the city also suggests that the Russian military leadership "is increasingly prioritizing the completion of the capture of the city" before the counteroffensive starts, the think tank concluded.

Feeding the speculation about Ukraine's counteroffensive has been the reported establishment of positions by its forces on the eastern side of the Dnieper River, near the town of Oleshky, along with stable supply lines, according to the ISW.

Analysts have said that a goal of a spring counteroffensive would be an attempt by Kyiv to break through the land corridor between Russia and the annexed Crimean Peninsula.

Natalia Humeniuk, the spokeswoman for Ukraine's Operational Command South, would not confirm or deny that the counteroffensive had started.

She told Ukrainian television, it was "very difficult work" when trying to "overcome an obstacle such as the Dnieper, when the front line passes through a wide and powerful river," the Associated Press reported.

Meanwhile, the biggest obstacle to the Ukrainian counteroffensive was not a lack of equipment but the rainy weather, said Estonian Minister of Defense Hanno Pevkur.

Pekvur, who attended last week's summit of the Ukrainian support group of allies at Ramstein air base in Germany, told Estonian news outlet ERR that it "could still be a month" before the counteroffensive.

"If the weather changes, it could come earlier. If not, it will be a month, maybe in two," he said, according to a translation.

Newsweek has contacted the Russian and Ukrainian defense ministries for comment.