Russia Is Running Out Of Ammo: How Much Longer Can It Keep Fighting?

The U.S. has cast doubt over whether Russia has enough artillery to keep up a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, with Moscow burning through more ammunition than it can restock.

On Wednesday, U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin told journalists that Russians "have struggled with logistics from the very beginning" of the war and "are still struggling with logistics" now. He added that they are "experiencing significant shortages of artillery munitions and reaching out to Iran and North Korea to get help from them."

For nine months, Russia has been burning through its military equipment stocks, losing hundreds of armored vehicles and artillery, at least 71 helicopters, and over 1,000 tanks. That's according to Oryx, a website that records military equipment losses in Ukraine.

The country's ability to replace the lost equipment has been significantly reduced since the beginning of the war on February 24, as Western sanctions have inched away at Russia's capacity of producing precision-guided weapons.

According to Austin, Russian forces rely heavily on artillery, firing large numbers of rounds before maneuvering on the ground—an operation that requires a lot of ammunition.

"I'm not sure that they have those kind of munitions to be able to support that going forward," Austin said, adding that he's not sure Russia will be able to quickly replace the lost ammo.

"These kinds of claims have been made before—around April onwards—and, yet it seems like there is no realistic estimate of how many missiles Russia has left," Marina Miron, from the Defence Studies Department of the King's College London, told Newsweek.

"For instance, some reports claim Russia was almost out of missiles by end of April and recently—on November 23, 2022—the Ukrainian intelligence stated that Russia had used up 50 percent of its missiles."

Miron added that while it's unclear how many missiles and how much ammo Russia has left in its stocks, it's certain that "Russia has used a great deal of missiles and artillery shells and will have to replenish its stocks, which might be much more difficult due to the existing sanctions."

Unable to replenish its stocks domestically, "it might be wiser for Russia to get cheaper ammo and missiles elsewhere," Miron said. For this, the Kremlin has been reaching out to Iran and North Korea.

"While there is no exact number known of how much artillery Russia is importing, what seems to be more important is that other countries, such as Iran and North Korea, have both the willingness and the capacity to provide Russia with ammo, missiles, and drones faster than Russia can manufacture its own; and most likely cheaper," Miron said.

"Thus, even if the imported 'goods' are inferior to Russian-made ones, for Russia it makes much more sense to import them anyway as it cannot afford to use up its own stockpiles completely, and manufacturing takes time and requires procurement of other parts such as microchips—in case of missiles.

"That said, the 'special military operation' in Ukraine is perhaps less about precision—though Iranian Fateh 110 and Zolfaghar do offer precision—than it is about the ability to create a barrage of fire for which a large quantity of artillery shells are needed. Certainly, Russia has done its cost-benefit analysis prior to making those purchases. In addition, working with Iran, Russia has the ability to outsource its own manufacturing there."

Who's Arming Russia?

At the moment, Iran and North Korea remain the only two countries known to be exporting weapons to Russia. Both are under international sanctions, and North Korea is cut off from the global commercial system.

According to a declassified American intelligence report mentioned by the New York Times in early September, Russia is buying millions of artillery shells and rockets from North Korea.

Iran, which has recently provided Moscow with hundreds of explosive drones and other guided munitions, is preparing to send 1,000 additional weapons—including ballistic missiles and more attack drones—to Russia, CNN reported on November 1.

"For Iran and North Korea this is a great opportunity not only to make money and battle-test their equipment, but also to show their way of disapproval of the Western world," said Miron.

"As for Russia's reliance on these countries, the ancient aphorism holds true here: 'The enemy of my enemy is my friend.' Russia's behavior is also driven by geopolitical reasons as well as by economic and military. Building relationships with so-called 'rogue' states creates a counterbalance to what Russia perceives as Western dominance of international relations."

How Much Longer Can Russia Keep Fighting?

"This will depend on how quickly Russia can achieve some of its military aims," Miron said. "We need to differentiate between artillery shells used on the battlefield and missiles used to strike targets deep into Ukrainian territory."

According to Miron, the use of missiles targeting Ukrainian cities might decline once Russia completely destroys Ukrainian the power grid and logistics.

"At present, the prospects for Ukraine in this sense are bleak," Miron commented.

"As for artillery shells, Russia is counting on a long war and to this end, artillery shells will be indispensable given Russia's tactics. While the stocks might be running low, Russia will ensure to keep replenishing those.

"The domestic production has been ramped up with factories running three shifts. In addition, Russia will try to procure whatever is indispensable to keep fighting abroad as we have seen with drones and now missiles. So, it would be unwise to measure the duration of Russia's involvement in Ukraine based on the existing ammo stockpiles. What is more important is Russia's political will and internal dynamics. These will be the determining factors of Russia's ability to fight."