What if Ukraine Didn't Receive Any Aid From the U.S.? An Alternate History

Opinion from the Republican Party may be divided about the extent of U.S military aid for Ukraine, but Russian President Vladimir Putin's invasion could have turned out quite differently if it were not for American support.

"U.S. weapons and aid have prevented Russia from winning and Ukraine from losing," William Astore, a retired lieutenant colonel and ex-professor of history at the U.S. Air Force Academy, told Newsweek. "Absent those weapons, Ukrainian forces would likely have been overwhelmed by last summer."

Traveling to Washington, D.C., this week, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky told Congress that their "money is not charity" in framing U.S. military aid as essential in fighting for global security and democracy.

However, sitting out most of the standing ovations that Zelensky received during his speech were GOP Representatives Lauren Boebert of Colorado, Matt Gaetz of Florida, and Jim Jordan of Ohio.

Much of the lawmakers' reluctance for more aid to the Eastern European country centers on calls for greater oversight of where the money goes. At the time time of Zelensky's speech, the U.S. had given around $48 billion in military, financial and humanitarian aid to Ukraine.

Meanwhile, Ukrainian MP Sviatoslav Yurash from Zelensky's Servant of the People Party, told Newsweek in November, Kyiv is "very welcoming to any kind of oversight," and did not view aid as "limitless."

The military aid from the U.S. has been indispensable to Ukraine's war effort. Putin was so confident his forces would sweep across Ukraine that his troops were ordered to be on the outskirts of Kyiv 13 hours after the invasion started on February 24, according to The New York Times, citing leaked battle plans.

"It seems pretty clear that without Western aid, Russian forces would have succeeded in capturing Kyiv in the early days of the war," Peter Rutland, professor of Russian, East European and Eurasian Studies at Wesleyan University, told Newsweek. Rutland added that U.S supplies of weapons have also been crucial in enabling Ukraine to push back Russian forces around Kharkiv and Kherson.

"U.S. intelligence seems to have been critical in providing detailed information about Russia's plans," he said, noting Moscow's move to seize Hostomel Airport near Kyiv and real-time intelligence on the position of Russian forces.

"No other Western ally could have provided such intelligence assistance," he added.

The global consequences of a swift Russian victory were outlined by historian Anne Applebaum, whose article in The Atlantic this week said that without U.S. support—and Ukrainian resistance—Russian troops would be on the border of Poland, NATO would be in chaos and the Moldovan economy would have collapsed.

"Dictatorships around the world would have tightened their regimes," Applebaum wrote, with China, emboldened by American unwillingness to help an ally, likely to have increased plans to invade Taiwan, while Iran would have declared it had nuclear weapons.

"If the U.S. had not worked with our allies and provided substantial military, economic and humanitarian aid to Ukraine, we would be facing a wide range of strategic threats in Europe and elsewhere," retired U.S. Navy Vice Admiral Robert Murrett told Newsweek. "Russia likely would have overrun much of Ukraine and probably Moldova, and would be threatening Poland, the Baltic States and Georgia."

"Like-minded autocrats in Asia and elsewhere would be emboldened, and a United States of diminished global stature would be scrambling at this point to partner with our allies and contend with these strategic threats," added Murrett, deputy director of Syracuse University Institute for Security Policy and Law.

HIMARS and M270 Multiple Launch Rocket Systems

There have been three phases of the war so far, according to Zev Faintuch, senior intelligence analyst with security firm Global Guardian. These comprised of Russia's attempted regime change in Ukraine at the start of the war, an attritional artillery campaign in the Donbas, and a two-pronged Ukrainian counteroffensive.

"U.S.-provided military aid has been instrumental in Ukraine's successes in the second and third phases of the conflict," he told Newsweek. "Had the Ukrainians not repelled the assault on Kyiv's Hostomel Airport in the initial 48 hours of the conflict, it is quite possible that Putin would have succeeded. Ukraine won the first phase by surviving."

He said that the U.S. supply of High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS) and M270 Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS) had allowed Ukraine to knock out Russian logistical nodes, ammunition depots, and command and control centers.

Russia does not have comparable precision-guided artillery and has been forced to move assets more than 50 miles behind the front lines to put them out of range, making it tougher for Russia to supply their forces, he added.

"Without this military aid, Russian artillery dominance may have led to holes in the Ukrainian lines allowing the Russians to envelop strategic areas of Donetsk," Faintuch said, which in turn helped with Ukraine's counteroffensive. "It is fairly obvious that without U.S. military aid, the situation on the ground would be radically different."