Russian Media Says Ukraine's HIMARS Hit Hydroelectric Power Plant

Russian state-run media claimed on Monday that Ukraine has struck the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant (HPP) with HIMARS (High Mobility Artillery Rocket System) and Alder missiles.

An emergency services spokesperson was cited by several news outlets as saying that Ukrainian troops fired 19 HIMARS and Alder missiles at the city of Novaya Kakhovka in the Kherson region on Monday morning, and that three had struck the Kakhovka HPP.

"The Kyiv regime continues to shell the civilian infrastructure of Novaya Kakhovka. So, at 11:20 [a.m.] they fired at the [Kakhovka] hydroelectric power station, firing 19 HIMARS and Alder missiles...Unfortunately, three missiles hit the hydroelectric power station," the spokesperson said.

The alleged attack comes days after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky warned that Russian forces may be preparing to carry out a false-flag attack on the Kakhovka HPP as Kyiv is conducts extensive military action to take back its territory.

Zelensky said in a video address to the nation on Thursday night that 80 settlements, including the city of Kherson, could be flooded if Russia blows up the power plant's dam.

The hydroelectric power plant has been shelled by Russian forces since the beginning of the war, which began after President Vladimir Putin launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a U.S. think tank, also assessed last week that Russian forces may be preparing to carry out a false-flag attack on the Kakhovka HPP, citing Vladimir Saldo, head of Kherson's Russian-installed administration, and General Sergei Surovikin, the new commander of Putin's army in Ukraine, as claiming that Ukraine intends to destroy the strategic facility.

The ISW said Russian authorities likely intend these warnings about a purported Ukrainian strike on the Kakhovka HPP to set an information environment for Russian forces to damage the dam themselves, and blame Ukraine for the subsequent damage and loss of life, all while using the resulting floods to cover their own retreat further south into the Kherson region.

The head of the Kremlin-installed city administration Vladimir Leontyev told state-run news agency RIA Novosti, that the HPP was not critically damaged, and that it continues to operate.

Former Ukrainian MP Sergey Khlan, who is currently an adviser to the regional governor of Kherson, said in August that should Russian troops significantly damage the strategic facility, a large number of settlements nearby may be flooded.

Neil Melvin, director of international security studies at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), told Newsweek last week the destruction of the dam would cause significant economic damage to the downstream areas and civilian death and displacement.

"It would also harm Ukraine's ability to generate electricity as the country heads into winter," said Melvin.

Melvin also said that the dam is equally a means for Russian troops to cross the Dnieper river, and as Ukraine makes progress on the western bank, Moscow wants to "prevent a breakout" by Ukrainian forces into the southern areas that is occupies on the eastern bank.

Krista Viksnins, program assistant at the Center for European Policy Analysis' Transatlantic Defense and Security Program, told Newsweek an attack on the plant would be "devastating," partly because it produces electricity for the region.

"The water supply used cools the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant. Without a water supply, the plant could potentially melt down," she noted.

Ukrainian media outlet Rubryka reported in July that the Kakhovka HPP is a vital element of the country's infrastructure security, and if destroyed, could result in catastrophic consequences.

Rubryka cited an environmental monitoring expert as saying that the consequences of damaging the dam of a hydroelectric power plant "can easily be compared to [an] atomic bomb explosion."

"Everyone should understand that one cubic meter of water weighs a ton: imagine the amount of water in a meter-by-meter cube: That's one ton. Dams contain a huge mass of water, millions of tons," Maksym Soroka told Rubryka.

"Force is mass multiplied by acceleration, and when that mass accelerates, we have a force of thousands of kilotons, and these forces are enough to destroy concrete. The devastating consequences become catastrophic."

Newsweek has contacted the foreign ministries of Ukraine and Russia for comment.