How Much Your Social Security in 2024 Could Rise By

Social Security recipients are likely to get a boost in their monthly payments next year by 3.2 percent, according to a new prediction from The Senior Citizens League (TSCL), a non-partisan advocacy group for America's elderly.

The cost of living adjustment (COLA) is formulated based on the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) for the third quarter of the current year with the third quarter of previous year. While the Social Security Administration (SSA) is yet to publish its official data and announce the level of increase, TSCL has calculated an estimate based on the Consumer Price Index for July and August. The annual COLA increase is required by law, so recipients will always get more cash each year they claim.

The SSA is expected to make the announcement regarding benefit increases on October 12. Increases will begin for recipients with payments for December 2023, which are made in January 2024.

If the 3.2 percent prediction is correct, this is considerably lower than the 8.7 percent increase given to recipients in 2023, which was the biggest hike in four decades. The reason for such a dramatic increase was the sharp rise in inflation from 2021 to 2022.

However, the 2024 adjustment is still higher than the average yearly boost of the last 20 years years, which is 2.6 percent.

Mary Johnson, Social Security and Medicare policy analyst at TSCL, told USA Today last month that while lower inflation is certainly welcome, "the harsh reality is that the amount that the COLAs increase benefits in most years is meager at best."

How much benefit Social Security recipients get is based on what they claim for. SSA benefits are paid based on your earnings record if you are aged 62 or older or if you are a person with a disability, or are widowed, and have enough work credits. For many people who are unable to work or are retired, payments make up a sizeable chunk of their monthly income.

Based on a predicted 3.2 percent rise in monthly payments, a single retiree would get an average increase of $58.89 each month, from $1,840.27 to $1,899.16. For a retired couple receiving the average of $3,680.54, that would increase to $117.78, up to $3,798.32.

Those with qualifying disabilities would get an average payment of $47.58, up from the average $1,486.83 to $1,543.41 per month. A widower will see an average increase of $54.90, up from the average $1,715.77 to $1,770.67, and the children of deceased workers would have their Social Security increased from $1,067.20 to $1,101.35, equaling $34.15 on average.

However, any increase is subject to other premiums like Medicare. Medicare Part B premiums, which are deducted from monthly payments for most beneficiaries, are likely to rise as well. Changes to Medicare premiums are typically announced in November.

According to research conducted by TSCL, 54 percent of older consumers are "unconvinced" that the previous 8.7 percent rise in Social Security payments will keep up with the rising cost of living.

Johnson, who conducted the research, revealed in February that "a growing percentage of older taxpayers are hit with the tax on Social Security every year because the income thresholds subjecting benefits to taxation are fixed, unlike tax brackets which are adjusted for inflation."

She explained: "Had these income thresholds been adjusted since the tax on Social Security benefits became effective in 1984, the $25,000 level today would be about $73,000 and the $32,000 level would be about $93,200. About 51 percent of survey respondents worry they will pay more in taxes this year due to the 5.9 percent COLA received last year. About one in five worry they may be subject to a tax on their Social Security benefits for the first time this tax season."

Newsweek has contacted The Senior Citizens League for comment via email.