A Toasty Winter? What the Strengthening El Niño Means for Your Area

Over the warm weather? It may be sticking around. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predictions reveal a much different winter outlook this year across the U.S., due to a strengthening El Niño. What will that look like? It depends on where you live. Here's what NOAA said in its latest prediction.

Overall, drier conditions are expected in the Pacific Northwest and much of the Midwest this winter, NOAA forecasts indicate. Wetter-than-average forecasts are expected across the Southeast and along much of the East Coast, while regions like the Northeast and Great Lakes anticipate warmer temperatures. The winter forecast across the Southern U.S. is more uncertain due to lingering warm ocean temperatures.

"Sea surface temperatures in the medial 3.4 region in the Tropical Pacific are roughly 1.6 degrees Celsius above normal," NOAA's Climate Prediction Center meteorologist Scott Handel explained in a late September briefing.

There's "over a 95% chance of El Niño through the upcoming winter," with a 70 percent likelihood of a strong El Niño event by the November-December-January season, Handel said. It will mark a significant shift from the past three winters, which were dominated by La Niña, El Niño's counterpart.

For October, most of the country is favored to have "warmer than normal temperatures," Handel said, particularly true for areas spanning from the Northeast and Great Lakes to the Western Gulf Coast region.

As we transition into the three-month period of October through December, El Niño's potential impacts become more pronounced. "Above normal precipitation is favored for the Southeast westwards of the Southern Plains and northward along much of the East Coast," Handel elaborated.

California recorded impressive rainfall totals this year. Last month, Tropical Storm Hilary dumped record rain across Southern California. This winter, NOAA predicts "above normal precipitation slightly for the Los Angeles area this winter," Handel said.

The Pacific Northwest, Northern Rockies, and parts of the Great Lakes are predicted to have warmer and drier conditions, consistent with anticipated El Niño effects.

What is El Niño?

El Niño is a periodic climate event characterized by unusually warm sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern regions of the Pacific Ocean near the equator. Occurring roughly every 2-7 years, its effects ripple beyond the Pacific, influencing global weather patterns.

In the U.S., El Niño's presence can lead to varied weather outcomes, such as increased rainfall in southern regions and drier conditions in the northwest, especially during the fall and winter months.

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